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We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Joseph Mathews , Giri Gopalan , James Gattiker , Sean Smith , Devin Francom

A vital stage in the mathematical modelling of real-world systems is to calibrate a model's parameters to observed data. Likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation, build Monte Carlo samples of the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Thomas P Prescott , Ruth E Baker

This Chapter, "ABC Samplers", is to appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). It details the main ideas and algorithms used to sample from the ABC approximation to the posterior distribution, including…

Computation · Statistics 2018-02-28 Y. Fan , S. A. Sisson

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular sampling method in applications involving intractable likelihood functions. Without evaluating the likelihood function, ABC approximates the posterior distribution by the set of accepted…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-17 Jin Zhou , Kenji Fukumizu

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-21 Jan-Matthis Lueckmann , Giacomo Bassetto , Theofanis Karaletsos , Jakob H. Macke

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-10 Sinan Yıldırım , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

There is a rich literature on Bayesian methods for density estimation, which characterize the unknown density as a mixture of kernels. Such methods have advantages in terms of providing uncertainty quantification in estimation, while being…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-10 Shounak Chattopadhyay , Antik Chakraborty , David B. Dunson

We consider the computation of the permanent of a binary n by n matrix. It is well- known that the exact computation is a #P complete problem. A variety of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational algorithms have been introduced in the…

Computation · Statistics 2013-05-30 Ajay Jasra , Junshan Wang

Methods of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly used for analysis of complex models. A major challenge for ABC is over-coming the often inherent problem of high rejection rates in the accept/reject methods based on…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-27 Fernando V. Bonassi , Mike West

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is widespread in many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-29 Thomas A. Dean , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Ajay Jasra , Gareth W. Peters

The Python package pyABC provides a framework for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a likelihood-free parameter inference method popular in many research areas. At its core, it implements a sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) scheme, with…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-25 Yannik Schälte , Emmanuel Klinger , Emad Alamoudi , Jan Hasenauer

We analyze the computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which approximates a likelihood function by drawing pseudo-samples from the associated model. For the rejection sampling version of ABC, it is known that…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-18 Luke Bornn , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith , Dawn Woodard

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Nando de Freitas , Pedro Hojen-Sorensen , Michael I. Jordan , Stuart Russell

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular likelihood-free inference method for models with intractable likelihood functions. As ABC methods usually rely on comparing summary statistics of observed and simulated data, the choice of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Ayush Bharti , Louis Filstroff , Samuel Kaski

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), also known as likelihood-free methods, have become a favourite tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models, primarily in population genetics but also in financial analyses. We advocated in…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-18 Christian Robert , Jean-Michel Marin , Natesh S. Pillai

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions and is utilized across many fields and disciplines. Methods such as Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Hamiltonian…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-28 Lee Devlin , Paul Horridge , Peter L. Green , Simon Maskell

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be viewed as an analytic approximation of an intractable likelihood coupled with an elementary simulation step. Such a view, combined with a suitable instrumental prior distribution permits…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-04 F. J. Rubio , Adam M. Johansen

The standard Kernel Quadrature method for numerical integration with random point sets (also called Bayesian Monte Carlo) is known to converge in root mean square error at a rate determined by the ratio $s/d$, where $s$ and $d$ encode the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-01 Francois-Xavier Briol , Chris J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , Wilson Ye Chen , Mark Girolami

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC for short) is a family of computational techniques which offer an almost automated solution in situations where evaluation of the posterior likelihood is computationally prohibitive, or whenever…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-04 Gérard Biau , Frédéric Cérou , Arnaud Guyader