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We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Thom Badings , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Ufuk Topcu , Nils Jansen

A general market model with memory is considered in terms of stochastic functional differential equations. We aim at representation formulae for the sensitivity analysis of the dependence of option prices on the memory. This implies a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-24 David R. Banos , Giulia Di Nunno , Frank Proske

Adaptive experiments, including efficient average treatment effect estimation and multi-armed bandit algorithms, have garnered attention in various applications, such as social experiments, clinical trials, and online advertisement…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-24 Masahiro Kato

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Maresa Schröder , Konstantin Hess , Niki Kilbertus , Stefan Feuerriegel

There are many measures to report so-called treatment or causal effects: absolute difference, ratio, odds ratio, number needed to treat, and so on. The choice of a measure, e.g. absolute versus relative, is often debated because it leads to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Gaël Varoquaux , Erwan Scornet

There exist many methods for sensitivity analysis readily available to the practitioner. While each seeks to help the modeler answer the same general question -- How do sources of uncertainty or changes in the model inputs relate to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-16 Devin Francom , Abigael Nachtsheim

This paper extends difference-in-differences to settings with continuous treatments. Specifically, the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) at any level of treatment intensity is identified under a conditional parallel trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-05 Lucas Z. Zhang

In recent years, the field of causal inference from observational data has emerged rapidly. The literature has focused on (conditional) average causal effect estimation. When (remaining) variability of individual causal effects (ICEs) is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Richard Post , Edwin van den Heuvel

In observational research treatment effects, the average treatment effect (ATE) estimator may be biased if a confounding variable is misclassified. We discuss the impact of classification error in a dichotomous confounding variable in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-13 Linda Nab , Rolf H. H. Groenwold , Maarten van Smeden , Ruth H. Keogh

In this paper, we introduce a new causal methodology that accounts for the rarity and frequency of events in observational studies based on their relevance to the underlying problem. Specifically, we propose a direct causal effect metric…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Usef Faghihi , Amir Saki

Causal inference necessarily relies upon untestable assumptions; hence, it is crucial to assess the robustness of obtained results to violations of identification assumptions. However, such sensitivity analysis is only occasionally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Tobias Freidling , Qingyuan Zhao

Sensitivity methods for the analysis of the outputs of discrete Bayesian networks have been extensively studied and implemented in different software packages. These methods usually focus on the study of sensitivity functions and on the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-07-05 Manuele Leonelli , Christiane Görgen , Jim Q. Smith

In the social and health sciences, researchers often make causal inferences using sensitive variables. These researchers, as well as the data holders themselves, may be ethically and perhaps legally obligated to protect the confidentiality…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-28 Sharmistha Guha , Jerome P. Reiter

Violations of the positivity assumption can render conventional causal estimands unidentifiable, including the average treatment effect (ATE), the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), and the average treatment effect on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Yi Liu , Yuan Wang , Ying Gao , Tonia Poteat , Roland A. Matsouaka

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

Selection bias is pervasive in observational studies. For example, large scale biobanks data can exhibit ``healthy volunteer bias'' when respondents are healthier and of higher socio-economic status than the population they are meant to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Yiwen Qiu , Filip Kovacevic , Shimeng Huang , Peter Spirtes , Francesco Locatello

Sensitivity Analysis is a framework to assess how conclusions drawn from missing outcome data may be vulnerable to departures from untestable underlying assumptions. We extend the E-value, a popular metric for quantifying robustness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Wu Xue , Abbas Zaidi

An important strategy for identifying principal causal effects, which are often used in settings with noncompliance, is to invoke the principal ignorability (PI) assumption. As PI is untestable, it is important to gauge how sensitive effect…

Estimating average causal effect (ACE) is useful whenever we want to know the effect of an intervention on a given outcome. In the absence of a randomized experiment, many methods such as stratification and inverse propensity weighting have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-11 Rathin Desai , Amit Sharma

Instrumental variables regression is a tool that is commonly used in the analysis of observational data. The instrumental variables are used to make causal inference about the effect of a certain exposure in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-07 Valentin Vancak , Arvid Sjölander