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Conformal prediction yields a prediction set with guaranteed $1-\alpha$ coverage of the true target under the i.i.d. assumption, which may not hold and lead to a gap between $1-\alpha$ and the actual coverage. Prior studies bound the gap…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Rui Xu , Chao Chen , Yue Sun , Parvathinathan Venkitasubramaniam , Sihong Xie

Traffic flow prediction is a big challenge for transportation authorities as it helps plan and develop better infrastructure. State-of-the-art models often struggle to consider the data in the best way possible, as well as intrinsic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Mayur Patil , Qadeer Ahmed , Shawn Midlam-Mohler

Graph Neural Networks have achieved remarkable accuracy in semi-supervised node classification tasks. However, these results lack reliable uncertainty estimates. Conformal prediction methods provide a theoretical guarantee for node…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Jianqing Song , Jianguo Huang , Wenyu Jiang , Baoming Zhang , Shuangjie Li , Chongjun Wang

Accurate prediction of wind power is essential for the grid integration of this intermittent renewable source and aiding grid planners in forecasting available wind capacity. Spatial differences lead to discrepancies in climatological data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Md Saiful Islam Sajol , Md Shazid Islam , A S M Jahid Hasan , Md Saydur Rahman , Jubair Yusuf

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel in diverse tasks, yet their applications in high-stakes domains are often hampered by unreliable predictions. Although numerous uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Tianyi Zhao , Jian Kang , Lu Cheng

Water utilities aim to reduce the high electrical costs of Water Distribution Networks (WDNs), primarily driven by pumping. However, pump scheduling is challenging due to model uncertainties and water demand forecast errors. This paper…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-25 Mirhan Ürkmez , Carsten Kallesøe , Jan Dimon Bendtsen , Eric C. Kerrigan , John Leth

As we evolve towards more heterogeneous and cutting-edge mobile networks, Network Digital Twins (NDTs) are proving to be a promising paradigm in solving challenges faced by network operators, as they give a possibility of replicating the…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2026-04-20 John Sengendo , Fabrizio Granelli

The rapid development of Wi-Fi technologies in recent years has caused a significant increase in the traffic usage. Hence, knowledge obtained from Wi-Fi network measurements can be helpful for a more efficient network management. In this…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Seyedeh Soheila Shaabanzadeh , Juan Sánchez-González

Many routing and flow optimization problems in wired networks can be solved efficiently using minimum cost flow formulations. However, this approach does not extend to wireless multi-hop networks, where the assumptions of fixed link…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Zhongyuan Zhao , Yujun Ming , Kevin Chan , Ananthram Swami , Santiago Segarra

The ability of the Network digital twin (NDT) to remain aware of changes in its physical counterpart, known as the physical twin (PTwin), is a fundamental condition to enable timely synchronization, also referred to as twinning. In this…

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

The efficient computation of shortest paths in complex networks is essential to face new challenges related to critical infrastructures such as a near real-time monitoring and control and the management of big size systems. In particular,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-12-02 Carlo Giudicianni , Armando di Nardo , Gabriele Oliva , Antonio Scala , Manuel Herrera

Water scarcity and the low quality of wastewater produced in industrial applications present significant challenges, particularly in managing fresh water intake and reusing residual quantities. These issues affect various industries,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Stavros Vatikiotis , Ioannis Avgerinos , Stathis Plitsos , Georgios Zois

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri

This paper presents a unified framework for understanding the methodology and theory behind several different methods in the conformal prediction literature, which includes standard conformal prediction (CP), weighted conformal prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Rina Foygel Barber , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) offer a versatile framework for constructing predictive distributions, allowing for calibrated inference and informative decision-making. However, their applicability has been limited to scenarios adhering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Jef Jonkers , Glenn Van Wallendael , Luc Duchateau , Sofie Van Hoecke

Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

Dataset condensation (DC) methods aim to learn a smaller synthesized dataset with informative data records to accelerate the training of machine learning models. Current distribution matching (DM) based DC methods learn a synthesized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-17 Wei Wei , Tom De Schepper , Kevin Mets

While existing depression prediction methods based on deep learning show promise, their practical application is hindered by the lack of trustworthiness, as these deep models are often deployed as black box models, leaving us uncertain on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yonghong Li , Xiuzhuang Zhou

Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Rui Xu , Yue Sun , Chao Chen , Parv Venkitasubramaniam , Sihong Xie