Related papers: Modelling the Solar Cycle Nonlinearities into the …
We explore the cause of the solar cycle variabilities using a novel 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo model. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with…
The energy-balance model of global climate, which is taking into account a nontrivial role of solar and galactic protons, is presented. The model is described by the equation of fold catastrophe relative to increment of temperature, where…
Solar activity affects the whole heliosphere and near-Earth space environment. It has been reported in the literature that the mechanism responsible for the solar activity modulation behaves like a low-dimensional chaotic system. Studying…
Analyses of recent helioseismic data have produced ample evidence for substantial dynamical variation of the differential rotation within the solar convection zone. Given the inevitable difficulties in resolving the precise nature of…
We explore the effect of some simple perturbations on three chaotic models proposed to describe large scale solar behavior via the solar dynamo theory: the Lorenz and the Rikitake systems, and a Van der Pol-Duffing oscillator. Planetary…
The emergence of tilted bipolar active regions and the dispersal of their flux, mediated via processes such as diffusion, differential rotation and meridional circulation is believed to be responsible for the reversal of the Sun's polar…
One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
Hemispheric irregularities of solar magnetic activity is a well-observed phenomenon -- the origin of which has been studied through numerical simulations and data-analysis techniques. In this work we explore possible causes generating…
The paper presents a study of a solar dynamo model operating in the bulk of the convection zone with the toroidal magnetic field flux concentrated in the subsurface rotational shear layer. We explore how this type of dynamo may depend on…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…
Accurate prediction of the 11-year solar cycle remains a major challenge in solar physics and is important for space weather forecasting. A persistent property of the cycle is its asymmetry: the rise phase is usually much shorter than the…
Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…
Decay and dispersal of the tilted Bipolar Magnetic Regions (BMRs) on the solar surface are observed to produce large-scale poloidal field, which acts as the seed for the toroidal field and, thus, the next sunspot cycle. However, various…
We present results from a three-dimensional Babcock--Leighton dynamo model that is sustained by the explicit emergence and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). On average, each BMR has a systematic tilt given by Joy's law.…
Starting from a classical Budyko-Sellers-Ghil energy balance model for the average surface temperature of the Earth, a nonautonomous version is designed by allowing the solar irradiance and the cloud cover coefficients to vary with time in…
The first results of the solar dynamo model that allows for the diamagnetic effect of inhomogeneous turbulence and the nonlocal alpha-effect due to the rise of magnetic loops are discussed. The nonlocal alpha-effect is not subject to the…
It can be shown on observational grounds that two basic effects of dynamo theory for solar activity - production of the toroidal field from the poloidal one by differential rotation and reverse conversion of the toroidal field to the…
The Sun shows a wide range of temporal variations, from a few seconds to decades and even centuries, broadly classified into two classes short-term and Long-term. The solar dynamo mechanism is believed to be responsible for these global…