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The rich literature on online Bayesian selection problems has long focused on so-called prophet inequalities, which compare the gain of an online algorithm to that of a "prophet" who knows the future. An equally-natural, though…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-08-19 Christos Papadimitriou , Tristan Pollner , Amin Saberi , David Wajc

We introduce a model of competing agents in a prophet setting, where rewards arrive online, and decisions are made immediately and irrevocably. The rewards are unknown from the outset, but they are drawn from a known probability…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-07-02 Tomer Ezra , Michal Feldman , Ron Kupfer

Online advertising has motivated interest in online selection problems. Displaying ads to the right users benefits both the platform (e.g., via pay-per-click) and the advertisers (by increasing their reach). In practice, not all users click…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-08-16 Sebastian Perez-Salazar , Mohit Singh , Alejandro Toriello

In this paper, we present a novel method for computing the asymptotic values of both the optimal threshold, and the probability of success in sequences of optimal stopping problems. This method, based on the resolution of a first-order…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-18 L. Bayón , P. Fortuny , J. M. Grau , A. M. Oller-Marcén , M. M. Ruiz

We study a variant of the single-choice prophet inequality problem where the decision-maker does not know the underlying distribution and has only access to a set of samples from the distributions. Rubinstein et al. [2020] showed that the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Tomer Ezra

Prophet inequality concerns a basic optimal stopping problem and states that simple threshold stopping policies -- i.e., accepting the first reward larger than a certain threshold -- can achieve tight $\frac{1}{2}$-approximation to the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Wei Tang , Haifeng Xu , Ruimin Zhang , Derek Zhu

We study a learning-augmented variant of the secretary problem, recently introduced by Fujii and Yoshida (2023), in which the decision-maker has access to machine-learned predictions of candidate values. The central challenge is to balance…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Helia Karisani , Mohammadreza Daneshvaramoli , Hedyeh Beyhaghi , Mohammad Hajiesmaili , Cameron Musco

We consider prophet inequalities under downward-closed constraints. In this problem, a decision-maker makes immediate and irrevocable choices on arriving elements, subject to constraints. Traditionally, performance is compared to the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Tomer Ezra , Stefano Leonardi , Rebecca Reiffenhäuser , Matteo Russo , Alexandros Tsigonias-Dimitriadis

We extend the standard online worst-case model to accommodate past experience which is available to the online player in many practical scenarios. We do this by revealing a random sample of the adversarial input to the online player ahead…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-07-12 Haim Kaplan , David Naori , Danny Raz

We study single-sample prophet inequalities (SSPIs), i.e., prophet inequalities where only a single sample from each prior distribution is available. Besides a direct, and optimal, SSPI for the basic single choice problem [Rubinstein et…

The classical secretary problem has been generalized over the years into several directions. In this paper we confine our interest to those generalizations which have to do with the more general problem of stopping on a last observation of…

Performance · Computer Science 2017-05-29 Guy Louchard

We study a continuous and infinite time horizon counterpart to the classic prophet inequality, which we term the stationary prophet inequality problem. Here, copies of a good arrive and perish according to Poisson point processes. Buyers…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Kristen Kessel , Amin Saberi , Ali Shameli , David Wajc

The secretary problem is one of the fundamental problems in online decision making; a tight competitive ratio for this problem of $1/\mathrm{e} \approx 0.368$ has been known since the 1960s. Much more recently, the study of algorithms with…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Alexander Braun , Sherry Sarkar

In the prophet secretary problem, $n$ values are drawn independently from known distributions, and presented in a uniformly random order. A decision-maker must accept or reject each value when it is presented, and may accept at most $k$…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Nick Arnosti , Will Ma

Prophet inequalities are fundamental optimal stopping problems, where a decision-maker observes sequentially items with values sampled independently from known distributions, and must decide at each new observation to either stop and gain…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Ziyad Benomar , Dorian Baudry , Vianney Perchet

We consider two variations of the classical secretary problem. * A variation of the returning secretary problem where each interviewee may appear a second time with a fixed probability p. The decision-maker observes interviewees…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Sarthak Agrawal , Sanjeev Saxena

In this work, we study the single-choice prophet inequality problem, where a gambler faces a sequence of~$n$ online i.i.d. random variables drawn from an unknown distribution. When a variable reveals its value, the gambler needs to decide…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-08-23 Bo Li , Xiaowei Wu , Yutong Wu

Prophet inequalities bound the expected reward that can be obtained in a stopping problem by the optimal reward of its corresponding off-line version. We propose a systematic technique for deriving prophet inequalities for stopping problems…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-10 Halil I. Bayrak , Mustafa Ç. Pınar , Rakesh Vohra

The classical analysis of online algorithms, due to its worst-case nature, can be quite pessimistic when the input instance at hand is far from worst-case. Often this is not an issue with machine learning approaches, which shine in…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Antonios Antoniadis , Themis Gouleakis , Pieter Kleer , Pavel Kolev

We present a general framework for stochastic online maximization problems with combinatorial feasibility constraints. The framework establishes prophet inequalities by constructing price-based online approximation algorithms, a natural…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-07-11 Paul Dütting , Michal Feldman , Thomas Kesselheim , Brendan Lucier