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Understanding causality is challenging and often complicated by changing causal relationships over time and across environments. Climate patterns, for example, shift over time with recurring seasonal trends, while also depending on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Sarah Mameche , Lénaïg Cornanguer , Urmi Ninad , Jilles Vreeken

Temporally evolving systems are typically modeled by dynamic equations. A key challenge in accurate modeling is understanding the causal relationships between subsystems, as well as identifying the presence and influence of unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-28 András Telcs , Marcell T. Kurbucz , Antal Jakovác

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Parjanya Prashant , Ignavier Ng , Kun Zhang , Biwei Huang

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

Causal reasoning can be considered a cornerstone of intelligent systems. Having access to an underlying causal graph comes with the promise of cause-effect estimation and the identification of efficient and safe interventions. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Amir Mohammad Karimi Mamaghan , Andrea Dittadi , Stefan Bauer , Karl Henrik Johansson , Francesco Quinzan

Discovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems from data is an important practical topic. Constrained optimization algorithms are widely utilized and lead to many successes. Yet, such purely data-driven methods may bring about…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

Most neural models of causality assume static causal graphs, failing to capture the dynamic and sparse nature of physical interactions where causal relationships emerge and dissolve over time. We introduce the Causal Process Framework and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Turan Orujlu , Christian Gumbsch , Martin V. Butz , Charley M Wu

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Gonçalo R. A. Faria , André F. T. Martins , Mário A. T. Figueiredo

Temporal link prediction is crucial for rapidly growing social networks. Existing methods often overlook the underlying causal mechanisms that drive link formation, making it difficult for algorithms to adapt to complex structures that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Hantong Feng , Duxin Chen , Wenwu Yu

Causal discovery is the subfield of causal inference concerned with estimating the structure of cause-and-effect relationships in a system of interrelated variables, as opposed to quantifying the strength or describing the form of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Rebecca F. Supple , Hannah Worthington , Ben Swallow

Data based detection and quantification of causation in complex, nonlinear dynamical systems is of paramount importance to science, engineering and beyond. Inspired by the widely used methodology in recent years, the cross-map-based…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Xiong Ying , Si-Yang Leng , Huan-Fei Ma , Qing Nie , Ying-Cheng Lai , Wei Lin

Deep learning (DL) has recently drawn much attention in image analysis, natural language process, and high-dimensional medical data analysis. Under the causal direct acyclic graph (DAG) interpretation, the input variables without incoming…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-22 Jong-Hyeon Jeong , Yichen Jia

This paper presents a computational framework that generates ensemble predictive mechanics models with uncertainty quantification (UQ). We first develop a causal discovery algorithm to infer causal relations among time-history data measured…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-24 Xiao Sun , Bahador Bahmani , Nikolaos N. Vlassis , WaiChing Sun , Yanxun Xu

An important goal across most scientific fields is the discovery of causal structures underling a set of observations. Unfortunately, causal discovery methods which are based on correlation or mutual information can often fail to identify…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-04-29 Matthew J. Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden

Discovery of causal relations is fundamental for understanding the dynamics of complex systems. While causal interactions are well defined for acyclic systems that can be separated into causally effective subsystems, a mathematical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-10-11 Daniel Harnack , Erik Laminski , Klaus Richard Pawelzik

Dynamic graph modeling has recently attracted much attention due to its extensive applications in many real-world scenarios, such as recommendation systems, financial transactions, and social networks. Although many works have been proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-18 Lu Wang , Xiaofu Chang , Shuang Li , Yunfei Chu , Hui Li , Wei Zhang , Xiaofeng He , Le Song , Jingren Zhou , Hongxia Yang

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Benjamin Herdeanu , Juan Nathaniel , Carla Roesch , Jatan Buch , Gregor Ramien , Johannes Haux , Pierre Gentine

Causal discovery is at the core of human cognition. It enables us to reason about the environment and make counterfactual predictions about unseen scenarios that can vastly differ from our previous experiences. We consider the task of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Yunzhu Li , Antonio Torralba , Animashree Anandkumar , Dieter Fox , Animesh Garg

Causal discovery is a structured prediction task that aims to predict causal relations among variables based on their data samples. Supervised Causal Learning (SCL) is an emerging paradigm in this field. Existing Deep Neural Network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Jiaru Zhang , Rui Ding , Qiang Fu , Bojun Huang , Zizhen Deng , Yang Hua , Haibing Guan , Shi Han , Dongmei Zhang

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Vittorio Del Tatto , Gianfranco Fortunato , Domenica Bueti , Alessandro Laio