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Professional baseball players are increasingly guaranteed expensive long-term contracts, with over 70 deals signed in excess of \$90 million, mostly in the last decade. These are substantial sums compared to a typical franchise valuation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-18 Brian Bierig , Jonathan Hollenbeck , Alexander Stroud

Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-21 Sameer K. Deshpande , Shane T. Jensen

This paper represents an analysis on the momentum of tennis match. And due to Generalization performance of it, it can be helpful in constructing a system to predict the result of sports game and analyze the performance of player based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Jingdi Lei , Tianqi Kang , Yuluan Cao , Shiwei Ren

In the National Basketball Association (NBA), teams must make choices about which players to acquire, how much to pay them, and other decisions that are fundamentally dependent on player effectiveness. Thus, there is great interest in…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-17 Dapo Omidiran

Sales pipeline analysis is fundamental to proactive management of an enterprize's sales pipeline and critical for business success. In particular, win propensity prediction, which involves quantitatively estimating the likelihood that…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2015-02-24 Junchi Yan , Min Gong , Changhua Sun , Jin Huang , Stephen M. Chu

Predicting the results of soccer matches is of great interest. This is not only due to the popularity of the sport and the joy of private "betting rounds", but also due to the large sports betting market. Where previously expert knowledge…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-09 Mirko Fischer , Andreas Heuer

Forecasting sporting events encapsulate a compelling intellectual endeavor, underscored by the substantial financial activity of an estimated $80 billion wagered in global sports betting during 2022, a trend that grows yearly. Motivated by…

With the vast amount of data collected on football and the growth of computing abilities, many games involving decision choices can be optimized. The underlying rule is the maximization of an expected utility of outcomes and the law of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-15 Preston Biro , Stephen G. Walker

Machine learning, classification and prediction models have applications across a range of fields. Sport analytics is an increasingly popular application, but most existing work is focused on automated refereeing in mainstream sports and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-30 Sophie Chiang , Gyorgy Denes

Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-07 Edward Wheatcroft , Ewelina Sienkiewicz

We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2013-10-28 Shiladitya Sinha , Chris Dyer , Kevin Gimpel , Noah A. Smith

In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-14 Manar D. Samad , Sumen Sen

League of Legends (LoL) is the most widely played multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) game in the world. An important aspect of LoL is competitive ranked play, which utilizes a skill-based matchmaking system to form fair teams. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-09 Tiffany D. Do , Seong Ioi Wang , Dylan S. Yu , Matthew G. McMillian , Ryan P. McMahan

This manuscript uses machine learning techniques to exploit baseball pitchers' decision making, so-called "Baseball IQ," by modeling the at-bat information, pitch selection and counts, as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Each state of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-01 Gagan Sidhu , Brian Caffo

"The chance to win given a certain move" is an easily obtainable quantity from data and often quoted in gaming statistics. It is also the fundamental quantity that reinforcement learning AI bases on. Unfortunately, this conditional…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-16 I-Sheng Yang

It is customary for researchers and practitioners to fit linear models in order to predict NBA player's salary based on the players' performance on court. On the contrary, we focus on the players salary share (with regards to the team…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-07 Ioanna Papadaki , Michail Tsagris

As a dedicated follower of sports statistics and with the MLB season beginning in late March, I set out to predict how many wins each team would accumulate by the end of the 162 game season. The goal was to build a simulation framework…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-09 Simon Cha

Numerous statistics have been proposed for the measure of offensive ability in major league baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-21 Blakeley B. McShane , Alexander Braunstein , James Piette , Shane T. Jensen

The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates arise from machine learning models fit from historical data.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-03 Ryan S. Brill , Ronald Yurko , Abraham J. Wyner

We consider how to make probability forecasts of binary labels. Our main mathematical result is that for any continuous gambling strategy used for detecting disagreement between the forecasts and the actual labels, there exists a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Vladimir Vovk , Akimichi Takemura , Glenn Shafer