Related papers: Asymptotic behavior for a general class of spreadi…
We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with infinitely many pathogen variants infecting a homogeneous host population. We show that the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ of the pathogen can be defined in that…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
Compartmental epidemic models, grounded in mass-action kinetics, often assume homogeneous mixing. Although this neglects network structure, recent results show that for Poisson random graphs, the classical SIR model, especially the…
We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
We propose a new paradigm to design a network-based self-adaptive epidemic model that relies on the interplay between the network and its line graph. We implement this proposal on a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model in which both nodes…
We introduce and investigate an SIS-type model for the spread of an infectious disease, where the infected population is structured with respect to the different strain of the virus/bacteria they are carrying. Our aim is to capture the…
We study the SIRS epidemic model, both analytically and on a square lattice. The analytic model has two stable solutions, post outbreak/epidemic (no infected, $I=0$) and the endemic state (constant number of infected: $I>0$). When the model…
The ubiquity of oscillations in epidemics presents a long standing challenge for the formulation of epidemic models. Whether they are external and seasonally driven, or arise from the intrinsic dynamics is an open problem. It is known that…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
An SIR epidemic model with free boundary is investigated. This model describes the transmission of diseases. The behavior of positive solutions to a reaction-diffusion system in a radially symmetric domain is investigated. The existence and…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from…
In this paper, we introduce the SDIR (Susceptible-Delayable-Infected-Recovered) model, an extension of the classical SIR epidemic framework, to provide a more explicit characterization of user behavior in online social networks. The newly…
We investigate the information-theoretical limits of inference tasks in epidemic spreading on graphs in the thermodynamic limit. The typical inference tasks consist in computing observables of the posterior distribution of the epidemic…
Motivated by analogies between the spreading of human-to-human infections and of chemical processes, we develop a comprehensive model that accounts both for infection and for transport. In this analogy, the three different populations of…
We focus on an epidemiological model (the archetypical SIR system) defined on graphs and study the asymptotic behavior of the solutions as the number of vertices in the graph diverges. By relying on the theory of so called graphons we…
We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…
In this paper, we develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure…