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Many traffic prediction applications rely on uncertainty estimates instead of the mean prediction. Statistical traffic prediction literature has a complete subfield devoted to uncertainty modelling, but recent deep learning traffic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Tijs Maas , Peter Bloem

This research paper addresses the significant challenge of accurately estimating poverty levels using deep learning, particularly in developing regions where traditional methods like household surveys are often costly, infrequent, and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Muhammad Umer Ramzan , Wahab Khaddim , Muhammad Ehsan Rana , Usman Ali , Manohar Ali , Fiaz ul Hassan , Fatima Mehmood

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-16 A. Navarra , G. G. Navarra

Estimating environmental exposures from multi-source data is central to public health research and policy. Integrating data from satellite products and ground monitors are increasingly used to produce exposure surfaces. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Yovna Junglee , Vianey Leos Barajas , Meredith Franklin

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

The increasing impact of human-induced climate change and unplanned urban constructions has increased flooding incidents in recent years. Accurate identification of flooded areas is crucial for effective disaster management and urban…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muhammad Umair Danish , Madhushan Buwaneswaran , Tehara Fonseka , Katarina Grolinger

One major impediment to the wider use of deep learning for clinical decision making is the difficulty of assigning a level of confidence to model predictions. Currently, deep Bayesian neural networks and sparse Gaussian processes are the…

This paper addresses the challenges of fault prediction and delayed response in distributed systems by proposing an intelligent prediction method based on temporal feature learning. The method takes multi-dimensional performance metric…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Yang Wang , Wenxuan Zhu , Xuehui Quan , Heyi Wang , Chang Liu , Qiyuan Wu

The escalating complexity of network threats and the inherent class imbalance in traffic data present formidable challenges for modern Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS). While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel in modeling topological…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Tianxiang Xu , Zhichao Wen , Xinyu Zhao , Qi Hu , Yan Li , Chang Liu

Motivated by the problem of computer-aided detection (CAD) of pulmonary nodules, we introduce methods to propagate and fuse uncertainty information in a multi-stage Bayesian convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture. The question we…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-02-15 Onur Ozdemir , Benjamin Woodward , Andrew A. Berlin

Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) provides a powerful and flexible framework for performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach extends Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-07 Edoardo Marcelli , Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Rockova

Environmental perception systems are crucial for high-precision mapping and autonomous navigation, with LiDAR serving as a core sensor providing accurate 3D point cloud data. Efficiently processing unstructured point clouds while extracting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Chuang Chen , Yi Lin , Bo Wang , Jing Hu , Xi Wu , Wenyi Ge

Continual learning aims to learn new tasks without forgetting previously learned ones. This is especially challenging when one cannot access data from previous tasks and when the model has a fixed capacity. Current regularization-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-21 Sayna Ebrahimi , Mohamed Elhoseiny , Trevor Darrell , Marcus Rohrbach

Learning fine-grained details is a key issue in image aesthetic assessment. Most of the previous methods extract the fine-grained details via random cropping strategy, which may undermine the integrity of semantic information. Extensive…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-06-27 Xiaodan Zhang , Xinbo Gao , Wen Lu , Lihuo He

Air quality prediction is a typical spatio-temporal modeling problem, which always uses different components to handle spatial and temporal dependencies in complex systems separately. Previous models based on time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Jing Xu , Shuo Wang , Na Ying , Xiao Xiao , Jiang Zhang , Yun Cheng , Zhiling Jin , Gangfeng Zhang

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) provide a powerful framework that elegantly integrates Graph theory with Machine learning for modeling and analysis of networked data. We consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in predictions of GNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-23 Sai Munikoti , Deepesh Agarwal , Laya Das , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

Accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction coupled with uncertainty quantification remains a critical challenge in aerospace prognostics. This research introduces a novel uncertainty-aware deep learning framework that learns aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Krishang Sharma

Scientific Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications require models that deliver trustworthy uncertainty estimates while respecting domain constraints. Existing uncertainty quantification methods lack mechanisms to incorporate symbolic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Shahnawaz Alam , Mohammed Mudassir Uddin , Mohammed Kaif Pasha

Near-surface air temperature is a key physical property of the Earth's surface. Although weather stations offer continuous monitoring and satellites provide broad spatial coverage, no single data source offers seamless data in a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Shengjie Kris Liu , Siqin Wang , Lu Zhang