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Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

In industrial commodity recommendation systems, the representation quality of Item-Id vocabularies directly impacts the scalability and generalization ability of recommendation models. A key challenge is that traditional Item-Id…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Chen Sun , Beilin Xu , Boheng Tan , Jiacheng Wang , Yuefeng Sun , Rite Bo , Ying He , Yaqiang Zang , Pinghua Gong

This work proposes a new method to select the augmentation parameters in the operator splitting quadratic program (OSQP) algorithm so as to reduce the computation time of overall algorithm. The selection is based upon the information of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Avinash Kumar

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Andro Sabashvili

We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-21 Lukas Vogel , Andrea Carron , Eleftherios E. Vlahakis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

Conformal prediction (CP) is an important tool for distribution-free predictive uncertainty quantification. Yet, a major challenge is to balance computational efficiency and prediction accuracy, particularly for multiple predictions. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-17 Kiljae Lee , Yuan Zhang

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical for trustworthy AI. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees, but its two main variants face complementary limitations. Split CP (SCP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Weicao Deng , Sangwoo Park , Min Li , Osvaldo Simeone

Research on Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection focuses mainly on building scores that efficiently distinguish OOD data from In Distribution (ID) data. On the other hand, Conformal Prediction (CP) uses non-conformity scores to construct…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Paul Novello , Joseba Dalmau , Léo Andeol

Several recent publications report advances in training optimal decision trees (ODT) using mixed-integer programs (MIP), due to algorithmic advances in integer programming and a growing interest in addressing the inherent suboptimality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-09 Haoran Zhu , Pavankumar Murali , Dzung T. Phan , Lam M. Nguyen , Jayant R. Kalagnanam

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-16 Ola Spjuth , Robin Carrión Brännström , Lars Carlsson , Niharika Gauraha

Reliable uncertainty quantification at unobserved spatial locations, especially in the presence of complex and heterogeneous datasets, remains a core challenge in spatial statistics. Traditional approaches like Kriging rely heavily on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Achieving valid conditional coverage in conformal prediction is challenging due to the theoretical difficulty of satisfying pointwise constraints in finite samples. Building upon the characterization of conditional coverage through marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Yajie Bao , Chuchen Zhang , Zhaojun Wang , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

Many robotics tasks, such as path planning or trajectory optimization, are formulated as optimal control problems (OCPs). The key to obtaining high performance lies in the design of the OCP's objective function. In practice, the objective…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-02 Trevor Barron , Xiaojing Zhang

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye

Appropriate time discretization is crucial for real-time applications of numerical optimal control, such as nonlinear model predictive control. However, if the discretization error strongly depends on the applied control input, meeting…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-17 Amon Lahr , Filip Tronarp , Nathanael Bosch , Jonathan Schmidt , Philipp Hennig , Melanie N. Zeilinger

By generating prediction intervals (PIs) to quantify the uncertainty of each prediction in deep learning regression, the risk of wrong predictions can be effectively controlled. High-quality PIs need to be as narrow as possible, whilst…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Haocheng Lei , Anthony Bellotti

We consider nonlinear optimal control problems (OCPs) for which all problem data are polynomial. In the first part of the paper, we review how occupation measures can be used to approximate pointwise the optimal value function of a given…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Didier Henrion , Jean B. Lasserre , Carlo Savorgnan

This paper proposes a simple yet highly accurate prediction-correction algorithm, SHARP, for unconstrained time-varying optimization problems. Its prediction is based on an extrapolation derived from the Lagrange interpolation of past…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-09 Tomoya Kamijima , Naoki Marumo , Akiko Takeda

Sampling is a basic operation in many inference-time algorithms of large language models (LLMs). To scale up inference efficiently with a limited compute, it is crucial to find an optimal allocation for sample compute budgets: Which…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Kexun Zhang , Shang Zhou , Danqing Wang , William Yang Wang , Lei Li

We consider the problem of reinforcement learning over episodes of a finite-horizon deterministic system and as a solution propose optimistic constraint propagation (OCP), an algorithm designed to synthesize efficient exploration and value…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-07-08 Zheng Wen , Benjamin Van Roy