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We investigate the impact of filter choice on forecast accuracy in state space models. The filters are used both to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, via a particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) algorithm, and to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-21 Patrick Leung , Catherine S. Forbes , Gael M. Martin , Brendan McCabe

Estimating and quantifying uncertainty in unknown system parameters from limited data remains a challenging inverse problem in a variety of real-world applications. While many approaches focus on estimating constant parameters, a subset of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-09 Andrea Arnold

A new formulation of the particle filter for nonlinear filtering is presented, based on concepts from optimal control, and from the mean-field game theory. The optimal control is chosen so that the posterior distribution of a particle…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-02-27 Tao Yang , Prashant G. Mehta , Sean P. Meyn

In recent work it is shown that importance sampling can be avoided in the particle filter through an innovation structure inspired by traditional nonlinear filtering combined with Mean-Field Game formalisms. The resulting feedback particle…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-18 Tao Yang , Richard S. Laugesen , Prashant G. Mehta , Sean P. Meyn

Particle filters (PFs) form a class of Monte Carlo algorithms that propagate over time a set of $N\geq 1$ particles which can be used to estimate, in an online fashion, the sequence of filtering distributions $(\hat{\eta}_t)_{t\geq 1}$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Mathieu Gerber

A Schmidt filter is a modification of the Kalman filter that allows to append system parameters as states and considers their uncertainty effect in the filtering process without attempting to estimate such parameters. The states that are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-29 J Humberto Ramos

This article develops a comprehensive framework for stability analysis of a broad class of commonly used continuous and discrete time-filters for stochastic dynamic systems with non-linear state dynamics and linear measurements under…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-11 Toni Karvonen , Silvère Bonnabel , Eric Moulines , Simo Särkkä

This overview paper describes the particle methods developed for the implementation of the a class of Bayes filters formulated using the random finite set formalism. It is primarily intended for the readership already familiar with the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-02-15 Branko Ristic , Michael Beard , Claudio Fantacci

The Gaussian Filter (GF) is one of the most widely used filtering algorithms; instances are the Extended Kalman Filter, the Unscented Kalman Filter and the Divided Difference Filter. GFs represent the belief of the current state by a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-06-09 Manuel Wüthrich , Sebastian Trimpe , Daniel Kappler , Stefan Schaal

State estimation is crucial for the performance and safety of numerous robotic applications. Among the suite of estimation techniques, particle filters have been identified as a powerful solution due to their non-parametric nature. Yet, in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Akhilan Boopathy , Aneesh Muppidi , Peggy Yang , Abhiram Iyer , William Yue , Ila Fiete

Kalman filters provide a straightforward and interpretable means to estimate hidden or latent variables, and have found numerous applications in control, robotics, signal processing, and machine learning. One such application is neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Josue Casco-Rodriguez , Caleb Kemere , Richard G. Baraniuk

We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-02 Joonha Park , Edward L. Ionides

We consider the discrete-time filtering problem in scenarios where the observation noise is low or degenerate. We focus on the case where the observation equation is a linear function of the state and the data involve additive noise.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-01 Abylay Zhumekenov , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Particle filters (PFs) are recursive Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian tracking and prediction in state space models. This paper addresses continuous-discrete filtering problems, where the hidden state evolves as an It\^o stochastic…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-24 Utku Erdogan , Gabriel J. Lord , Joaquin Miguez

The Kalman filter computes the optimal variable-gain using prior knowledge of the initial state and random (process and measurement) noise distributions, which are assumed to be Gaussian with known variance. However, when these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-31 Hugh Lachlan Kennedy

Semiparametric forecasting and filtering are introduced as a method of addressing model errors arising from unresolved physical phenomena. While traditional parametric models are able to learn high-dimensional systems from small data sets,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-17 Tyrus Berry , John Harlim

Differentiable particle filters provide a flexible mechanism to adaptively train dynamic and measurement models by learning from observed data. However, most existing differentiable particle filters are within the bootstrap particle…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Xiongjie Chen , Hao Wen , Yunpeng Li

Using Bayesian transfer learning, we develop a particle filter approach for tracking a nonlinear dynamical model in a dual-tracking system where intensities of measurement noise for both sensors are asymmetric. The densities for Bayesian…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-24 Omar A. Alotaibi , Brian L. Mark , Mohammad Reza Fasihi

The input-parameter-state estimation capabilities of a novel unscented Kalman filter is examined herein on both linear and nonlinear systems. The unknown input is estimated in two stages within each time step. Firstly, the predicted dynamic…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-05 Marios Impraimakis , Andrew W. Smyth

The aim of this paper is twofold: In the first part, we leverage recent results on scenario design to develop randomized algorithmsfor approximating the image set of a nonlinear mapping, that is, a (possibly noisy) mapping of a set via a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-30 Fabrizio Dabbene , Didier Henrion , Constantino Lagoa , Pavel Shcherbakov