Related papers: Tipping Points and Cascading Transitions: Methods,…
Critical transitions, or large changes in the state of a system after a small change in the system's external conditions or parameters, commonly occur in a wide variety of disciplines, from the biological and social sciences to physics.…
In contemporary educational systems, academic performance indicators play a central role in institutional evaluation and in the interpretation of student trajectories. However, under conditions of rapid technological change, the inferential…
Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…
We present a machine learning (ML)-assisted framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale modeling, for (a) detecting tipping points in the emergent behavior of complex systems, and…
Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…
Coupling constitutes a foundational mechanism in the Earth system, regulating the interconnected physical, chemical, and biological processes that link its spheres. This review examines how emerging artificial intelligence (AI) methods…
Contagions such as the spread of popular news stories, or infectious diseases, propagate in cascades over dynamic networks with unobservable topologies. However, "social signals" such as product purchase time, or blog entry timestamps are…
The percolation phase transition in complex network systems attracts much attention and has numerous applications in various research fields. Finite size effects smooth the transition and make it difficult to predict the critical point of…
Integration of variable energy resources -- e.g., solar, wind, and hydro -- and end-use electrification increase modern energy systems' weather-dependence. Identifying critical infrastructure constraining the power grid's ability to meet…
We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous…
We introduce a novel geometry-oriented methodology, based on the emerging tools of topological data analysis, into the change point detection framework. The key rationale is that change points are likely to be associated with changes in…
Early-warning signals of delicate design are always used to predict critical transitions in complex systems, which makes it possible to render the systems far away from the catastrophic state by introducing timely interventions. Traditional…
Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…
This topic review communicates working experiences regarding interaction of a multiplicity of processes. Our experiences come from climate change modelling, materials science, cell physiology and public health, and macroeconomic modelling.…
By constructing an exactly solvable spin model, we investigate the critical behaviors of transverse field Ising chains interpolated with cluster interactions, which exhibit various types of topologically distinct Ising critical points.…
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…
We apply tipping point analysis to measurements of electronic components commonly used in applications in the automotive or aviation industries and demonstrate early warning signals based on scaling properties of resistance time series. The…
Financial markets of emerging economies are vulnerable to extreme and cascading information spillovers, surges, sudden stops and reversals. With this in mind, we develop a new online early warning system (EWS) to detect what is referred to…
Climate changepoint (homogenization) methods abound today, with a myriad of techniques existing in both the climate and statistics literature. Unfortunately, the appropriate changepoint technique to use remains unclear to many. Further…