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Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is a general method for estimating parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. Each iteration of TMLE involves fitting a parametric submodel that targets the parameter of interest. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-03 Iván Díaz , Michael Rosenblum

Unlike the commonly used parametric regression models such as mixed models, that can easily violate the required statistical assumptions and result in invalid statistical inference, target maximum likelihood estimation allows more realistic…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-17 Chi Zhang , Jennifer Ahern , Mark J. van der Laan

We study targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) of the average treatment effect in a semiparametric regression model whose mean function is indexed by a finite-dimensional parameter, while the additive error distribution is left…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-20 Mijeong Kim

Although deep learning models have driven state-of-the-art performance on a wide array of tasks, they are prone to spurious correlations that should not be learned as predictive clues. To mitigate this problem, we propose a causality-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Xinyi Wang , Wenhu Chen , Michael Saxon , William Yang Wang

The Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) statistical data analysis framework integrates machine learning, statistical theory, and statistical inference to provide a least biased, efficient and robust strategy for estimation and…

Robust decision making involves making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and is often used in critical domains such as healthcare, supply chains, and finance. Causality plays a crucial role in decision-making as it predicts the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Saideep Nannapaneni , Joseph Sakaya , Kyle Caron , Pedro HM Albuquerque , Zaid Tashman

We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-08 Laura B. Balzer , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan , Maya L. Petersen

Modern deep neural networks are powerful predictive tools yet often lack valid inference for causal parameters, such as treatment effects or entire survival curves. While frameworks like Double Machine Learning (DML) and Targeted Maximum…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Yi Li , David Mccoy , Nolan Gunter , Kaitlyn Lee , Alejandro Schuler , Mark van der Laan

Structural equation models (SEMs) are widely used in sciences, ranging from economics to psychology, to uncover causal relationships underlying a complex system under consideration and estimate structural parameters of interest. We study…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-21 Luofeng Liao , You-Lin Chen , Zhuoran Yang , Bo Dai , Zhaoran Wang , Mladen Kolar

Structured Latent Attribute Models (SLAMs) are a family of discrete latent variable models widely used in education, psychology, and epidemiology to model multivariate categorical data. A SLAM assumes that multiple discrete latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-12 Yuqi Gu , Gongjun Xu

Structural equation models (SEMs) have been widely adopted for inference of causal interactions in complex networks. Recent examples include unveiling topologies of hidden causal networks over which processes such as spreading diseases, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-05 Yanning Shen , Brian Baingana , Georgios B. Giannakis

Causal mediation analysis with random interventions has become an area of significant interest for understanding time-varying effects with longitudinal and survival outcomes. To tackle causal and statistical challenges due to the complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-12 Zeyi Wang , Lars van der Laan , Maya Petersen , Thomas Gerds , Kajsa Kvist , Mark van der Laan

Empirical research in many social disciplines involves constructs that are not directly observable, such as behaviors. To model them, constructs must be operationalized using their relations with indicators. Structural equation modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Jonas Bauer , Axel Mayer , Christiane Fuchs , Tamara Schamberger

We address the practical construction of asymptotic confidence intervals for smooth (i.e., path-wise differentiable), real-valued statistical parameters by targeted learning from independent and identically distributed data in contexts…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-01 Patrice Bertail , Antoine Chambaz , Emilien Joly

Path analysis is a model class of structural equation modeling (SEM), which it describes causal relations among measured variables in the form of a multiple linear regression. This paper presents two estimation formulations, one each for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-03 Anupon Pruttiakaravanich , Jitkomut Songsiri

This article introduces the R package concrete, which implements a recently developed targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for the cause-specific absolute risks of time-to-event outcomes measured in continuous time. Cross-validated…

This paper provides a tutorial discussion on analyzing structural equation modelling (SEM). SEM can be regarded as regression models with observed and unobserved indicators, have been extensively applied to practical and fundamental…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-15 Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

The goal of optimization-based meta-learning is to find a single initialization shared across a distribution of tasks to speed up the process of learning new tasks. Conditional meta-learning seeks task-specific initialization to better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Ruohan Wang , Yiannis Demiris , Carlo Ciliberto

Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) is increasingly used for doubly robust causal inference, but how missing data should be handled when using TMLE with data-adaptive approaches is unclear. Based on the Victorian Adolescent Health…

We propose a novel targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for quantiles in semiparametric missing data models. Our proposed estimator is locally efficient, $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal, and doubly robust, under…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-23 Iván Díaz
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