Related papers: Online Energy Storage Arbitrage under Imperfect Pr…
This paper proposes a risk-averse approach to energy storage price arbitrage, leveraging conformal uncertainty quantification for electricity price predictions. The method addresses the significant challenges posed by the inherent…
Electricity prices and the end user net load vary with time. Electricity consumers equipped with energy storage devices can perform energy arbitrage, i.e., buy when energy is cheap or when there is a deficit of energy, and sell it when it…
This paper proposes a novel energy storage price arbitrage algorithm combining supervised learning with dynamic programming. The proposed approach uses a neural network to directly predicts the opportunity cost at different energy storage…
In online selective conformal inference, data arrives sequentially, and prediction intervals are constructed only when an online selection rule is met. Since online selections may break the exchangeability between the selected test datum…
The importance of reactive power compensation for power factor (PF) correction will significantly increase with the large-scale integration of distributed generation interfaced via inverters producing only active power. In this work, we…
Electricity price prediction plays a vital role in energy storage system (ESS) management. Current prediction models focus on reducing prediction errors but overlook their impact on downstream decision-making. So this paper proposes a…
Power systems face increasing weather-driven variability and, therefore, increasingly rely on flexible but energy-limited storage resources. Energy storage can buffer this variability, but its value depends on intertemporal decisions under…
In this paper, we derive a temporal arbitrage policy for storage via reinforcement learning. Real-time price arbitrage is an important source of revenue for storage units, but designing good strategies have proven to be difficult because of…
We investigate the profitability and risk of energy storage arbitrage in electricity markets under price uncertainty, exploring both robust and chance-constrained optimization approaches. We analyze various uncertainty representations,…
We study the optimal control of storage which is used for arbitrage, i.e. for buying a commodity when it is cheap and selling it when it is expensive. Our particular concern is with the management of energy systems, although the results are…
We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret…
Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption. However, this assumption is often violated in online…
This study investigates the integration of forecasting and optimization in energy management systems, with a focus on the role of switching costs -- penalties incurred from frequent operational adjustments. We develop a theoretical and…
We study online conformal prediction for non-stationary data streams subject to unknown distribution drift. While most prior work studied this problem under adversarial settings and/or assessed performance in terms of gaps of time-averaged…
We formulate the optimal energy arbitrage problem for a piecewise linear cost function for energy storage devices using linear programming (LP). The LP formulation is based on the equivalent minimization of the epigraph. This formulation…
Prediction markets rely on liquidity to convert trades into informative prices, yet existing mechanisms fix liquidity ex ante. This restriction enforces a static trade-off between price responsiveness and worst-case loss despite inherently…
This paper presents a novel decision-focused framework integrating the physical energy storage model into machine learning pipelines. Motivated by the model predictive control for energy storage, our end-to-end method incorporates the prior…
Forecasting accuracy is routinely optimised in financial prediction tasks even though investment and risk-management decisions are executed under transaction costs, market impact, capacity limits, and binding risk constraints. This paper…
Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte…
We study the optimal control of storage which is used for both arbitrage and buffering against unexpected events, with particular applications to the control of energy systems in a stochastic and typically time-heterogeneous environment.…