Related papers: SARIMAX-Based Power Outage Prediction During Extre…
This paper presents a novel learning based framework for predicting power outages caused by extreme events. The proposed approach targets low-probability high-consequence outage scenarios and leverages a comprehensive set of features…
In this paper, in an attempt to improve power grid resilience, a machine learning model is proposed to predictively estimate the component states in response to extreme events. The proposed model is based on a multi-dimensional Support…
By significant improvements in modern electrical systems, planning for unit commitment and power dispatching of them are two big concerns between the researchers. Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in planning and…
Thunderstorm-driven power outages are difficult to predict because most storms do not cause damage, convective processes occur rapidly and chaotically, and the available public data are noisy and incomplete. Severe convective storms now…
We develop a time series model to forecast weekly peak power demand for three main states of Australia for a yearly time-scale, and show the crucial role of environmental factors in improving the forecasts. More precisely, we construct a…
This paper addresses how to improve the computational efficiency and estimation reliability in cascading outage analysis. We first formulate a cascading outage as a Markov chain with specific state space and transition probability by…
Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's…
This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron…
In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become…
Natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and winter storms have induced large-scale power outages in the U.S., resulting in tremendous economic and societal impacts. Accurately predicting power outage recovery and impact is key to…
Time series forecasting models have diverse real world applications (e.g., from electricity metrics to software workload). Latest foundational models trained for time series forecasting show strengths (e.g., for long sequences and in…
Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to several days ahead, can enhance preparedness, support…
Extreme weather events, such as severe storms, hurricanes, snowstorms, and ice storms, which are exacerbated by climate change, frequently cause widespread power outages. These outages halt industrial operations, impact communities, damage…
Short-term electricity price forecasting has become important for demand side management and power generation scheduling. Especially as the electricity market becomes more competitive, a more accurate price prediction than the day-ahead…
In recent decades, the weather around the world has become more irregular and extreme, often causing large-scale extended power outages. Resilience -- the capability of withstanding, adapting to, and recovering from a large-scale disruption…
Evaluating resilience in electric distribution systems under severe weather requires models that can connect network topology, hazard simulation, fragility modeling, restoration assumptions, repair strategy, and downstream consequences.…
The increasing use of renewable energy sources with variable output, such as solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, calls for Smart Grids that effectively manage flexible loads and energy storage. The ability to forecast consumption…
This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and…
A machine learning model is proposed in this paper to help estimate potential nodal load curtailment in response to an extreme event. This is performed through identifying which grid components will fail as a result of an extreme event, and…
Cloud services are omnipresent and critical cloud service failure is a fact of life. In order to retain customers and prevent revenue loss, it is important to provide high reliability guarantees for these services. One way to do this is by…