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We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-04 John C. Duchi

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim

We propose conformal hyperrectangular prediction regions for multi-target regression. We propose split conformal prediction algorithms for both point and quantile regression to form hyperrectangular prediction regions, which allow for easy…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-10 Max Sampson , Kung-Sik Chan

A two-stage approach is proposed to overcome the problem in quantile regression, where separately fitted curves for several quantiles may cross. The standard Bayesian quantile regression model is applied in the first stage, followed by a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-05 Thais Rodrigues , Yanan Fan

Sufficient dimension reduction [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 86 (1991) 316-342] has long been a prominent issue in multivariate nonparametric regression analysis. To uncover the central dimension reduction space, we propose in this paper an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-08-15 Efang Kong , Yingcun Xia

Estimating the structures at high or low quantiles has become an important subject and attracted increasing attention across numerous fields. However, due to data sparsity at tails, it usually is a challenging task to obtain reliable…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-08 Yingying Zhang , Yuefeng Si , Guodong Li , Chil-Ling Tsai

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

In this paper, I will introduce a new form of regression, that can adjust overfitting and underfitting through, "distance-based regression." Overfitting often results in finding false patterns causing inaccurate results, so by having a new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Dylan Wilson

In this paper, we study a novel approach for the estimation of quantiles when facing potential right censoring of the responses. Contrary to the existing literature on the subject, the adopted strategy of this paper is to tackle censoring…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-24 Mickaël De Backer , Anouar El Ghouch , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Conformal prediction is a popular framework of uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. To uphold the exchangeability assumption, many conformal prediction methods necessitate an additional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Hao Zeng , Kangdao Liu , Bingyi Jing , Hongxin Wei

In this article, we develop a semiparametric Bayesian estimation and model selection approach for partially linear additive models in conditional quantile regression. The asymmetric Laplace distribution provides a mechanism for Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2013-07-11 Yuao Hu , Kaifeng Zhao , Heng Lian

Quantile regression has received increased attention in the statistics community in recent years. This article adapts an auxiliary variable method, commonly used in Bayesian variable selection for mean regression models, to the fitting of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-28 J. -L. Dortet-Bernadet , Y. Fan

In the present paper we investigate the predictive risk of possibly misspecified quantile regression functions. The in-sample risk is well-known to be an overly optimistic estimate of the predictive risk and we provide two relatively simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Alexander Giessing , Xuming He

Quantile regression relates the quantile of the response to a linear predictor. For a discrete response distributions, like the Poission, Binomial and the negative Binomial, this approach is not feasible as the quantile function is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-19 Tullia Padellini , Haavard Rue

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Rigorous guarantees about the performance of predictive algorithms are necessary in order to ensure their responsible use. Previous work has largely focused on bounding the expected loss of a predictor, but this is not sufficient in many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Jake C. Snell , Thomas P. Zollo , Zhun Deng , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

In practical applications, one often does not know the "true" structure of the underlying conditional quantile function, especially in the ultra-high dimensional setting. To deal with ultra-high dimensionality, quantile-adaptive marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-26 Daoji Li , Yinfei Kong , Dawit Zerom

In this paper, we focus on distributed estimation and support recovery for high-dimensional linear quantile regression. Quantile regression is a popular alternative tool to the least squares regression for robustness against outliers and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Caixing Wang , Ziliang Shen

In this paper, we investigate the adequacy testing problem of high-dimensional factor-augmented regression model. Existing test procedures perform not well under dense alternatives. To address this critical issue, we introduce a novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-04 Yanmei Shi , Leheng Cai , Xu Guo , Shurong Zheng

Quantile regression has demonstrated promising utility in longitudinal data analysis. Existing work is primarily focused on modeling cross-sectional outcomes, while outcome trajectories often carry more substantive information in practice.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Huijuan Ma , Limin Peng , Haoda Fu