Related papers: Quantifying the radiative response to surface temp…
Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…
Pattern similarity-based methods are widely used in classification and regression problems. Repeated, similar-shaped cycles observed in seasonal time series encourage to apply these methods for forecasting. In this paper we use the pattern…
The spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) plays a central role in shaping the climate system, yet the influence of land surface temperature (LST) remains poorly understood. Using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean--land--atmosphere…
In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. We show for the first time…
Evaluating the magnitude of natural climate variations is important because it can greatly affect future climate policies. As an example, we examine the influence of changes in solar activity (solar wind in particular) on surface…
Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…
We write a nonlinear model that predicts the climate (temperature and humidity) on the surface of a small region on Earth, perform numerical investigations using the model, and compare the results to real climate on a variety of regions on…
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…
We directly determine the sensitivity and time delay of Earth's surface temperature response to annual solar irradiance variations from 60 years of data. A two-layer energy balance model is developed to interpret the results. Explaining…
Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of ambient ozone levels and temperatures which, in turn, may impact public health. Much research has focused on the effect of short-term ozone exposures on mortality and morbidity while…
This paper describes how to analyze the influence of Earth system variables on the errors when providing temperature forecasts. The initial framework to get the data has been based on previous research work, which resulted in a very…
Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and…
The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: $\tau_1 =0.4 \pm 0.1$ yr, and…
The Pattern Effect describes the dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiation anomalies on changes in the pattern of sea surface temperatures. The emerging consensus in the field explains the impact of Pacific warm pool temperature on…
The thermal characterisation of a building envelope is usually best performed from on site measurements with controlled heating power set points. Occupant-friendly measurement conditions provide on the contrary less informative data.…
The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…
Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are…