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The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

We introduce a framework for estimating causal effects of binary and continuous treatments in high dimensions. We show how posterior distributions of treatment and outcome models can be used together with doubly robust estimators. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-06 Joseph Antonelli , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Francesca Dominici

Substantial advances in Bayesian methods for causal inference have been developed in recent years. We provide an introduction to Bayesian inference for causal effects for practicing statisticians who have some familiarity with Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-12 Arman Oganisian , Jason A. Roy

In causal inference confounding may be controlled either through regression adjustment in an outcome model, or through propensity score adjustment or inverse probability of treatment weighting, or both. The latter approaches, which are…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-17 Olli Saarela , Léo R. Belzile , David A. Stephens

Objective Bayesian inference procedures are derived for the parameters of the multivariate random effects model generalized to elliptically contoured distributions. The posterior for the overall mean vector and the between-study covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-07 Olha Bodnar , Taras Bodnar

We address the challenge of conducting inference for a categorical treatment effect related to a binary outcome variable while taking into account high-dimensional baseline covariates. The conventional technique used to establish…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-27 Abhishek Ojha , Naveen N. Narisetty

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

This paper presents a novel nonlinear regression model for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data, geared specifically towards situations with small effect sizes, heterogeneous effects, and strong confounding.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 P. Richard Hahn , Jared S. Murray , Carlos Carvalho

This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-13 Max H. Farrell

We describe a design-based framework for drawing causal inference in general randomized experiments. Causal effects are defined as linear functionals evaluated at unit-level potential outcome functions. Assumptions about the potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-15 Christopher Harshaw , Fredrik Sävje , Yitan Wang

No man is an island, as individuals interact and influence one another daily in our society. When social influence takes place in experiments on a population of interconnected individuals, the treatment on a unit may affect the outcomes of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-30 Edward K. Kao

We develop a design-based framework for causal inference that accommodates random potential outcomes without introducing outcome models, thereby extending the classical Neyman--Rubin paradigm in which outcomes are treated as fixed. By…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Yukai Yang

In causal inference, sensitivity analysis is important to assess the robustness of study conclusions to key assumptions. We perform sensitivity analysis of the assumption that missing outcomes are missing completely at random. We follow a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-12 Bart Eggen , Stéphanie L. van der Pas , Aad W. van der Vaart

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

With the evolution of single-cell RNA sequencing techniques into a standard approach in genomics, it has become possible to conduct cohort-level causal inferences based on single-cell-level measurements. However, the individual gene…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Jin-Hong Du , Zhenghao Zeng , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman , Kathryn Roeder

A powerful tool for the analysis of nonrandomized observational studies has been the potential outcomes model. Utilization of this framework allows analysts to estimate average treatment effects. This article considers the situation in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-31 Debashis Ghosh , Efrén Cruz-Cortés

Causal inference requires evaluating models on balanced distributions between treatment and control groups, while training data often exhibits imbalance due to historical decision-making policies. Most conventional statistical methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-21 Akira Tanimoto

Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Jingyue Huang , Changbao Wu , Leilei Zeng