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Modeling the dynamics of probability distributions from time-dependent data samples is a fundamental problem in many fields, including digital health. The goal is to analyze how the distribution of a biomarker, such as glucose, changes over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-18 Antonio Álvarez-López , Marcos Matabuena

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is a minimally invasive technology that measures blood glucose every few minutes for weeks or months at a time. CGM data are often collected in the free-living environment and is strongly related to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Marcos Matabuena , Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

We present a Bayesian approach for modeling multivariate, dependent functional data. To account for the three dominant structural features in the data--functional, time dependent, and multivariate components--we extend hierarchical dynamic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-02 Daniel R. Kowal , David S. Matteson , David Ruppert

Understanding how biomarker distributions evolve over time is a central challenge in digital health and chronic disease monitoring. In diabetes, changes in the distribution of glucose measurements can reveal patterns of disease progression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-26 Antonio Álvarez-López , Marcos Matabuena

Wearable devices permit the continuous monitoring of biological processes, such as blood glucose metabolism, and behavior, such as sleep quality and physical activity. The continuous monitoring often occurs in epochs of 60 seconds over…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Yuanyuan Luan , Roger S. Zoh , Erjia Cui , Xue Lan , Sneha Jadhav , Carmen D. Tekwe

With continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), data-driven models on blood glucose prediction have been shown to be effective in related work. However, such (CGM) systems are not always available, e.g., for a patient at home. In this work, we…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-04-10 Tu Nguyen , Markus Rokicki

Modelling a large bundle of curves arises in a broad spectrum of real applications. However, existing literature relies primarily on the critical assumption of independent curve observations. In this paper, we provide a general theory for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-21 Shaojun Guo , Xinghao Qiao

Describing dynamic medical systems using machine learning is a challenging topic with a wide range of applications. In this work, the possibility of modeling the blood glucose level of diabetic patients purely on the basis of measured data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-10 David Jödicke , Daniel Parra , Gabriel Kronberger , Stephan Winkler

Biosensor data has the potential ability to improve disease control and detection. However, the analysis of these data under free-living conditions is not feasible with current statistical techniques. To address this challenge, we introduce…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-30 Marcos Matabuena , Alexander Petersen , Juan C. Vidal , Francisco Gude

The global diabetes epidemic highlights the importance of maintaining good glycemic control. Glucose prediction is a fundamental aspect of diabetes management, facilitating real-time decision-making. Recent research has introduced models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-19 Ming Cheng , Xingjian Diao , Ziyi Zhou , Yanjun Cui , Wenjun Liu , Shitong Cheng

We consider the problem of sequentially testing for changes in the mean parameter of a time series, compared to a benchmark period. Most tests in the literature focus on the null hypothesis of a constant mean versus the alternative of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Patrick Bastian , Tim Kutta , Rupsa Basu , Holger Dette

Postprandial glucose collected through continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides critical information for assessing metabolic capacity and guiding dietary recommendations. Traditional approaches summarize these data into scalar measures,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-03 Marcos Matabuena , Joe Sartini , Francisco Gude

In the U.S., over a third of adults are pre-diabetic, with 80\% unaware of their status. This underlines the need for better glucose monitoring to prevent type 2 diabetes and related heart diseases. Existing wearable glucose monitors are…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-26 Yidong Zhu , Nadia B Aimandi , Mohammad Arif Ul Alam

We propose a generalized partially linear functional single index risk score model for repeatedly measured outcomes where the index itself is a function of time. We fuse the nonparametric kernel method and regression spline method, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-15 Fei Jiang , Yanyuan Ma , Yuanjia Wang

We extend the well-known $\beta$-model for directed graphs to dynamic network setting, where we observe snapshots of adjacency matrices at different time points. We propose a kernel-smoothed likelihood approach for estimating $2n$…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-22 Yuqing Du , Lianqiang Qu , Ting Yan , Yuan Zhang

A task of vital clinical importance, within Diabetes management, is the prevention of hypo/hyperglycemic events. Increasingly adopted Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) devices offer detailed, non-intrusive and real time insights into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-09 Jakub J. Dylag

Functional data analysis deals with data recorded densely over time (or any other continuum) with one or more observed curves per subject. Conceptually, functional data are continuously defined, but in practice, they are usually observed at…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-20 Chengqian Xian , Camila de Souza , John Jewell , Ronaldo Dias

The mathematical modelling of biological systems has historically followed one of two approaches: comprehensive and minimal. In comprehensive models, the involved biological pathways are modelled independently, then brought together as an…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Eric Ng , Jaycee Morgan Kaufman , Lennaert van Veen , Yan Fossat

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the covariance kernel and its eigenvalues and eigenfunctions from sparse, irregularly observed, noise corrupted and (possibly) correlated functional data. We present a method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-07-09 Debashis Paul , Jie Peng

The rising rates of diabetes necessitate innovative methods for its management. Continuous glucose monitors (CGM) are small medical devices that measure blood glucose levels at regular intervals providing insights into daily patterns of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-10 Renat Sergazinov , Elizabeth Chun , Valeriya Rogovchenko , Nathaniel Fernandes , Nicholas Kasman , Irina Gaynanova
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