English
Related papers

Related papers: Bayesian model selection and misspecification test…

200 papers

Due to their great flexibility, nonparametric Bayes methods have proven to be a valuable tool for discovering complicated patterns in data. The term "nonparametric Bayes" suggests that these methods inherit model-free operating…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-04-15 Peter D. Hoff

Bayesian graphical models have been shown to be a powerful tool for discovering uncertainty and causal structure from real-world data in many application fields. Current inference methods primarily follow different kinds of trade-offs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-20 Daniel Rugeles , Zhen Hai , Gao Cong , Manoranjan Dash

Over the past 10 years Bayesian methods have rapidly grown more popular as several computationally intensive statistical algorithms have become feasible with increased computer power. In this paper, we begin with a general description of…

Astrophysics · Physics 2016-02-19 David A. van Dyk , Alanna Connors , Vinay L. Kashyap , Aneta Siemiginowska

We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Chi Feng , Youssef M. Marzouk

A common task in experimental sciences is to fit mathematical models to real-world measurements to improve understanding of natural phenomenon (reverse-engineering or inverse modeling). When complex dynamical systems are considered, such as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-18 Jean-Charles Croix , Nicolas Durrande , Mauricio Alvarez

We derive a family of loss functions to train models in the presence of sampling bias. Examples are when the prevalence of a pathology differs from its sampling rate in the training dataset, or when a machine learning practioner rebalances…

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Henry Chai , Jean-Francois Ton , Roman Garnett , Michael A. Osborne

Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, the loss ignores misspecification, where models are imperfect. Parameter uncertainties from Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-07 Thomas D Swinburne , Danny Perez

Inference problems with incomplete observations often aim at estimating population properties of unobserved quantities. One simple way to accomplish this estimation is to impute the unobserved quantities of interest at the individual level…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-16 Vladimir N. Minin , John D. O'Brien , Arseni Seregin

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Hua Xu , Julián D. Arias-Londoño , Juan I. Godino-Llorente

Model selection is crucial to high-dimensional learning and inference for contemporary big data applications in pinpointing the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate interpretable models. Most existing work assumes implicitly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-21 Emre Demirkaya , Yang Feng , Pallavi Basu , Jinchi Lv

We tackle the problem of system identification, where we select inputs, observe the corresponding outputs from the true system, and optimize the parameters of our model to best fit the data. We propose a practical and computationally…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-02 Alexandros E. Tzikas , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Before autonomous systems can be deployed in safety-critical applications, we must be able to understand and verify the safety of these systems. For cases where the risk or cost of real-world testing is prohibitive, we propose a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Charles Dawson , Chuchu Fan

With the rising concern on model interpretability, the application of eXplainable AI (XAI) tools on deepfake detection models has been a topic of interest recently. In image classification tasks, XAI tools highlight pixels influencing the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Balachandar Gowrisankar , Vrizlynn L. L. Thing

In many parameter estimation problems, the exact model is unknown and is assumed to belong to a set of candidate models. In such cases, a predetermined data-based selection rule selects a parametric model from a set of candidates before the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-25 Nadav Harel , Tirza Routtenberg

Classically, Bayesian clustering interprets each component of a mixture model as a cluster. The inferred clustering posterior is highly sensitive to any inaccuracies in the kernel within each component. As this kernel is made more flexible,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 David Buch , Miheer Dewaskar , David B. Dunson

Inverse problems can be described as limited-data problems in which the signal of interest cannot be observed directly. A physics-based forward model that relates the signal with the observations is typically needed. Unfortunately, unknown…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-08 Alexandra Koulouri , Ville Rimpilainen

The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Lidan Wang , Franck Dernoncourt , Trung Bui

Bayesian methods have been widely used in the last two decades to infer statistical properties of spatially variable coefficients in partial differential equations from measurements of the solutions of these equations. Yet, in many cases…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-01 David Aristoff , Wolfgang Bangerth

The choice of prior is central to solving ill-posed imaging inverse problems, making it essential to select one consistent with the measurements $y$ to avoid severe bias. In Bayesian inverse problems, this could be achieved by evaluating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Frederic Wang , Katherine L. Bouman