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This study introduces an innovative Gaussian Process (GP) model utilizing an ensemble kernel that integrates Radial Basis Function (RBF), Rational Quadratic, and Mat\'ern kernels for product sales forecasting. By applying Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Shahin Mirshekari , Negin Hayeri Motedayen , Mohammad Ensaf

The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Lidan Wang , Franck Dernoncourt , Trung Bui

Neural Bayes estimators are neural networks that approximate Bayes estimators in a fast and likelihood-free manner. Although they are appealing to use with spatial models, where estimation is often a computational bottleneck, neural Bayes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Matthew Sainsbury-Dale , Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Jordan Richards , Raphaël Huser

We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-17 Tom Rainforth , Tuan Anh Le , Jan-Willem van de Meent , Michael A. Osborne , Frank Wood

We consider the problem of optimizing a grey-box objective function, i.e., nested function composed of both black-box and white-box functions. A general formulation for such grey-box problems is given, which covers the existing grey-box…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-03 Wenjie Xu , Yuning Jiang , Bratislav Svetozarevic , Colin N. Jones

Bayesian optimisation is a popular technique for hyperparameter learning but typically requires initial exploration even in cases where similar prior tasks have been solved. We propose to transfer information across tasks using learnt…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Ho Chung Leon Law , Peilin Zhao , Lucian Chan , Junzhou Huang , Dino Sejdinovic

Bayesian optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expensive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Modelling noisy data in a network context remains an unavoidable obstacle; fortunately, random matrix theory may comprehensively describe network environments effectively. Thus it necessitates the probabilistic characterisation of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-04 J. Pillay , A. Bekker , J. T. Ferreira , M. Arashi

In the literature on deep neural networks, there is considerable interest in developing activation functions that can enhance neural network performance. In recent years, there has been renewed scientific interest in proposing activation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Mohamed Fakhfakh , Lotfi Chaari

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Akash Yadav , Ruda Zhang

This paper investigates a new class of modifier-adaptation schemes to overcome plant-model mismatch in real-time optimization of uncertain processes. The main contribution lies in the integration of concepts from the areas of Bayesian…

We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Timur Takhtaganov , Juliane Müller

Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-22 Ziyu Wang , Chris Holmes

This paper studies the formulation, well-posedness, and numerical solution of Bayesian inverse problems on metric graphs, in which the edges represent one-dimensional wires connecting vertices. We focus on the inverse problem of recovering…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-03-30 David Bolin , Wenwen Li , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

We consider a class of colored graphical Gaussian models obtained by placing symmetry constraints on the precision matrix in a Bayesian framework. The prior distribution on the precision matrix is the colored $G$-Wishart prior which is the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-03 Qiong Li , Xin Gao , Helene Massam

Mobile networks require safe optimization to adapt to changing conditions in traffic demand and signal transmission quality, in addition to improving service performance metrics. With the increasing complexity of emerging mobile networks,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-19 Alina Castell Blasco , Maxime Bouton

Many contemporary machine learning models require extensive tuning of hyperparameters to perform well. A variety of methods, such as Bayesian optimization, have been developed to automate and expedite this process. However, tuning remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Setareh Ariafar , Zelda Mariet , Ehsan Elhamifar , Dana Brooks , Jennifer Dy , Jasper Snoek

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a prominent methodology for optimizing expensive black-box functions by leveraging Gaussian process surrogates, which focus on capturing the global characteristics of the objective function. However, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Qiyu Wei , Haowei Wang , Richard Allmendinger , Mauricio A. Álvarez

In many real-world problems, we want to infer some property of an expensive black-box function $f$, given a budget of $T$ function evaluations. One example is budget constrained global optimization of $f$, for which Bayesian optimization is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-07 Willie Neiswanger , Ke Alexander Wang , Stefano Ermon

A new modelling approach for the analysis of weighted networks with ordinal/polytomous dyadic values is introduced. Specifically, it is proposed to model the weighted network connectivity structure using a hierarchical multilayer…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-05 Alberto Caimo , Isabella Gollini
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