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Although we have made progress in understanding disease spread in complex systems with non-Poissonian activity patterns, current models still fail to capture the full range of recovery time distributions. In this paper, we propose an…
We are interested in describing the infected size of the SIS Epidemic model using Birth-Death Markov process. The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is defined within a population of constant size $M$; the size is kept constant by…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
We propose a topological framework for the detection of Hopf bifurcations directly from time series, based on persistent homology applied to phase space reconstructions via Takens embedding within the framework of Topological Data Analysis.…
We study the Bazykin predator-prey model with predator intraspecific interactions and ratio-dependent functional response and show the existence and stability of two interior equilibrium points. We prove that the model displays a wide range…
We consider a model proposed by one of the authors for a type of plastic instability found in creep experiments which reproduces a number of experimentally observed features. The model consists of three coupled non-linear differential…
As shown recently by the author, constant population SI(R)S models map to Hethcote's classic endemic model originally proposed in 1973. This unifies a whole class of models with up to 10 parameters, all being isomorphic to a simple…
We investigate the SIR epidemic on a dynamic inhomogeneous Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph, in which vertices are of one of $k$ types and in which edges appear and disappear independently of each other. We establish a functional law of large…
This study investigates the influence of different types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on epidemic progression using SIR compartmental models. We analyze the optimization of two distinct targets: the final epidemic size and the…
The SIRS model with constant vaccination and immunity waning rates is well known to show a transition from a disease-free to an endemic equilibrium as the basic reproduction number $r_0$ is raised above threshold. It is shown that this…
A data-driven model identification strategy is developed for dynamical systems near a supercritical Hopf bifurcation with nonautonomous inputs. This strategy draws on phase-amplitude reduction techniques, leveraging an analytical…
Double Hopf bifurcation analysis can be used to reveal some complicated dynamical behavior in a dynamical system, such as the existence or coexistence of periodic orbits, quasi-periodic orbits, or even chaos. In this paper, an algorithm for…
In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…
The global behaviour of the compact pairwise approximation of SIS epidemic propagation on networks is studied. It is shown that the system can be reduced to two equations enabling us to carry out a detailed study of the dynamic properties…
Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected(I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an…
To simplify mathematical models of disease spread, we often assume equal contact rates among hosts, but real-world scenarios differ. Network-based frameworks help capture these complexities and structural variations in actual systems. We…
The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…
We study an SIR epidemic model with a seasonal contact rate and saturated treatment function. It is shown that the basic reproduction number $(\mathcal {R}_0)$ cannot be acted as a threshold that predicts the spread of an infection. Based…
We propose a novel slow-fast SIRS compartmental model with demography, by coupling a slow disease spreading model and a fast information and misinformation spreading model. Beside the classes of susceptible, infected and recovered…
The ubiquity of oscillations in epidemics presents a long standing challenge for the formulation of epidemic models. Whether they are external and seasonally driven, or arise from the intrinsic dynamics is an open problem. It is known that…