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Related papers: Calibrating Bayesian Inference

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Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

A stream of algorithmic advances has steadily increased the popularity of the Bayesian approach as an inference paradigm, both from the theoretical and applied perspective. Even with apparent successes in numerous application fields, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-10 Owen Thomas , Henri Pesonen , Jukka Corander

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

In the Bayesian framework power prior distributions are increasingly adopted in clinical trials and similar studies to incorporate external and past information, typically to inform the parameter associated to a treatment effect. Their use…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Roberto Macrì Demartino , Leonardo Egidi , Nicola Torelli , Ioannis Ntzoufras

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-15 Bradley Efron

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference, since the computation of normalisation constants requires summation over large or possibly infinite sets, which can be impractical. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-04 Takuo Matsubara , Jeremias Knoblauch , François-Xavier Briol , Chris. J. Oates

We provide another look at the statistical calibration problem in computer models. This viewpoint is inspired by two overarching practical considerations of computer models: (i) many computer models are inadequate for perfectly modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-26 Xiaowu Dai , Peter Chien

Compute and memory constraints have historically prevented traffic simulation software users from fully utilizing the predictive models underlying them. When calibrating car-following models, particularly, accommodations have included 1)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-08 Franklin Abodo , Andrew Berthaume , Stephen Zitzow-Childs , Leonardo Bobadilla

Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) is a practical method to validate computationally-derived posterior distributions or their approximations. In this paper, we introduce a new variant of SBC to alleviate several known problems. Our…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

Standard Bayesian inference is known to be sensitive to model misspecification, leading to unreliable uncertainty quantification and poor predictive performance. However, finding generally applicable and computationally feasible methods for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-31 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Leonardo Cella , Emily C. Hector

This study examines the application of Bayesian approach in the context of clinical trials, emphasizing their increasing importance in contemporary biomedical research. While conventional frequentist approach provides a foundational basis…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Paramahansa Pramanik , Arnab Kumar Maity , Anjan Mandal , Haley Kate Robinson

We consider Bayesian inference in inverse regression problems where the objective is to infer about unobserved covariates from observed responses and covariates. We establish posterior consistency of such unobserved covariates in Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Being cautious is crucial for enhancing the trustworthiness of machine learning systems integrated into decision-making pipelines. Although calibrated probabilities help in optimal decision-making, perfect calibration remains unattainable,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Mari-Liis Allikivi , Joonas Järve , Meelis Kull

Preferential sampling is a common feature in geostatistics and occurs when the locations to be sampled are chosen based on information about the phenomena under study. In this case, point pattern models are commonly used as the probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-27 Douglas Mateus da Silva , Dani Gamerman