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We develop a direct debiased machine learning framework comprising Neyman targeted estimation and generalized Riesz regression. Our framework unifies Riesz regression for automatic debiased machine learning, covariate balancing, targeted…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-31 Masahiro Kato

Estimating the Riesz representer is central to debiased machine learning for causal and structural parameter estimation. We propose generalized Riesz regression, a unified framework for estimating the Riesz representer by fitting a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-11 Masahiro Kato

This study clarifies the relationship between Riesz regression [Chernozhukov et al., 2021] and density ratio estimation (DRE) in causal inference problems, such as average treatment effect estimation. We first show that the Riesz…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-25 Masahiro Kato

This position paper argues that, in debiased machine learning, balancing functions should be derived from the Neyman orthogonal score, not chosen only as functions of covariates. Covariate balancing is effective when the regression error…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-08 Masahiro Kato

This study considers the estimation of the direct bias-correction term for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). Let $\{(X_i, D_i, Y_i)\}_{i=1}^{n}$ be the observations, where $X_i$ denotes $K$-dimensional covariates, $D_i \in \{0,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-02 Masahiro Kato

Efficient estimation of causal and structural parameters can be automated using the Riesz representation theorem and debiased machine learning (DML). We present genriesz, an open-source Python package that implements automatic DML and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Masahiro Kato

The ratio of two probability density functions is a fundamental quantity that appears in many areas of statistics and machine learning, including causal inference, reinforcement learning, covariate shift, outlier detection, independence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Oliver J. Hines , Caleb H. Miles

We study targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) of the average treatment effect in a semiparametric regression model whose mean function is indexed by a finite-dimensional parameter, while the additive error distribution is left…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-20 Mijeong Kim

In this paper, we extend the Riesz representation framework to causal inference under sample selection, where both treatment assignment and outcome observability are non-random. Formulating the problem in terms of a Riesz representer…

Binary density ratio estimation (DRE), the problem of estimating the ratio $p_1/p_2$ given their empirical samples, provides the foundation for many state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms such as contrastive representation learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-08 Lantao Yu , Yujia Jin , Stefano Ermon

Standard approaches to causal inference, such as Outcome Regression and Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA), are typically derived through the lens of missing data imputation and identification theory. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-23 Ashley Zhang

We consider Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) of weighted average treatment effects (WATEs), a class of causal estimands that reweight the covariate distribution using a specified function of the propensity score. This class…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Yang Liu , Patrick Lopatto , Ivana Malenica

We extend the idea of automated debiased machine learning to the dynamic treatment regime and more generally to nested functionals. We show that the multiply robust formula for the dynamic treatment regime with discrete treatments can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-22 Victor Chernozhukov , Whitney Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

In this paper, we develop a multiply robust inference procedure of the average treatment effect (ATE) for data with high-dimensional covariates. We consider the case where it is difficult to correctly specify a single parametric model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Xintao Xia , Yumou Qiu

Estimating treatment effects is of great importance for many biomedical applications with observational data. Particularly, interpretability of the treatment effects is preferable for many biomedical researchers. In this paper, we first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-28 Kan Chen , Qishuo Yin , Qi Long

Causal inference using observational text data is becoming increasingly popular in many research areas. This paper presents the Bayesian Topic Regression (BTR) model that uses both text and numerical information to model an outcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-14 Maximilian Ahrens , Julian Ashwin , Jan-Peter Calliess , Vu Nguyen

Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the presence of high-dimensional confounding,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Susan Ellul , Stijn Vansteelandt , John B. Carlin , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Real-World Data (RWD), with its large sample sizes and rich clinical detail, offers a compelling alternative to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for studying treatment effects in diverse and complex patient populations. However, its…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yifei Xu , Hwiyoung Lee , Zhenyao Ye , Yezhi Pan , Jingsong Zhou , Yun Yang , Chixiang Chen , Shuo Chen

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-17 Uri Shalit , Fredrik D. Johansson , David Sontag
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