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No unmeasured confounding is often assumed in estimating treatment effects in observational data when using approaches such as propensity scores and inverse probability weighting. However, in many such studies due to the limitation of the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-08-06 Rong Huang , Ronghui Xu , Parambir S. Dulai

In settings where Machine Learning (ML) algorithms automate or inform consequential decisions about people, individual decision subjects are often incentivized to strategically modify their observable attributes to receive more favorable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-10 Keegan Harris , Daniel Ngo , Logan Stapleton , Hoda Heidari , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Causal influence measures for machine learnt classifiers shed light on the reasons behind classification, and aid in identifying influential input features and revealing their biases. However, such analyses involve evaluating the classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-10 Shayak Sen , Piotr Mardziel , Anupam Datta , Matthew Fredrikson

We introduce causal inference reasoning to cross-over trials, with a focus on Thorough QT (TQT) studies. For such trials, we propose different sets of assumptions and consider their impact on the modelling strategy and estimation procedure.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-31 Jeppe Ekstrand Halkjær Madsen , Thomas Scheike , Christian Pipper

We investigate how to exploit structural similarities of an individual's potential outcomes (POs) under different treatments to obtain better estimates of conditional average treatment effects in finite samples. Especially when it is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-26 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal inference necessarily relies upon untestable assumptions; hence, it is crucial to assess the robustness of obtained results to violations of identification assumptions. However, such sensitivity analysis is only occasionally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Tobias Freidling , Qingyuan Zhao

Causal abstraction techniques such as Interchange Intervention Training (IIT) have been proposed to infuse neural network with expert knowledge encoded in causal models, but their application to real-world problems remains limited. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Ana Esponera , Giovanni Cinà

Unmeasured confounding presents a common challenge in observational studies, potentially making standard causal parameters unidentifiable without additional assumptions. Given the increasing availability of diverse data sources, exploiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Shanshan Luo , Yechi Zhang , Wei Li

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

This paper shows how to use a randomized saturation experimental design to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of spillovers--one person's treatment may affect another's outcome--and one-sided non-compliance--subjects can…

Analysts often make visual causal inferences about possible data-generating models. However, visual analytics (VA) software tends to leave these models implicit in the mind of the analyst, which casts doubt on the statistical validity of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-07-29 Alex Kale , Yifan Wu , Jessica Hullman

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

Causal approaches to fairness have seen substantial recent interest, both from the machine learning community and from wider parties interested in ethical prediction algorithms. In no small part, this has been due to the fact that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-17 Niki Kilbertus , Philip J. Ball , Matt J. Kusner , Adrian Weller , Ricardo Silva

An important aspect of the performance of algorithms that predict individualized treatment effects (ITE) is moderate calibration, i.e., the average treatment effect among individuals with predicted treatment effect of z being equal to z.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Jeroen Hoogland , Thomas P. A. Debray , John Petkau

Estimating causal interactions in complex dynamical systems is an important problem encountered in many fields of current science. While a theoretical solution for detecting the causal interactions has been previously formulated in the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-01-20 Jakub Kořenek , Jaroslav Hlinka

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the presence of high-dimensional confounding,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Susan Ellul , Stijn Vansteelandt , John B. Carlin , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

Learning models that can handle distribution shifts is a key challenge in domain generalization. Invariance learning, an approach that focuses on identifying features invariant across environments, improves model generalization by capturing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Yiran Jia , Jelena Bradic

Causal learning is the cognitive process of developing the capability of making causal inferences based on available information, often guided by normative principles. This process is prone to errors and biases, such as the illusion of…