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Recently, Bj{\o}ru et al. proposed a novel divide-and-conquer algorithm for bounding counterfactual probabilities in structural causal models (SCMs). They assumed that the SCMs were learned from purely observational data, leading to an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Anna Rodum Bjøru , Rafael Cabañas , Helge Langseth , Antonio Salmerón

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Ngoc Bui , Duy Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) model feedback causal relations in interwoven webs of causality and policy variables. FCMs are fuzzy signed directed graphs that allow degrees of causal influence and event occurrence. Such causal models can…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-07-03 Osonde Osoba , Bart Kosko

Recent work on causal abstraction, in particular graphical approaches focusing on causal structure between clusters of variables, aims to summarize a high-dimensional causal structure in terms of a low-dimensional one. Existing methods for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Francisco Madaleno , Francisco C Pereira , Alex Markham

Scientists often use directed acyclic graphs (days) to model the qualitative structure of causal theories, allowing the parameters to be estimated from observational data. Two causal models are equivalent if there is no experiment which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Tom S. Verma , Judea Pearl

The Synthetic Control method has pioneered a class of powerful data-driven techniques to estimate the counterfactual reality of a unit from donor units. At its core, the technique involves a linear model fitted on the pre-intervention…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Bhishma Dedhia , Roshini Balasubramanian , Niraj K. Jha

Being able to provide counterfactual interventions - sequences of actions we would have had to take for a desirable outcome to happen - is essential to explain how to change an unfavourable decision by a black-box machine learning model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Giovanni De Toni , Bruno Lepri , Andrea Passerini

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-01 Elias Chaibub Neto

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Precise knowledge of causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is assumed for standard approaches towards valid adjustment set selection for unbiased estimation, but in practice, the DAG is often inferred from data or expert knowledge,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Zhongyi Hu , Stéphanie van der Pas

Causal reasoning in relational domains is fundamental to studying real-world social phenomena in which individual units can influence each other's traits and behavior. Dynamics between interconnected units can be represented as an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-10 Ragib Ahsan , David Arbour , Elena Zheleva

Counterfactual examples are one of the most commonly-cited methods for explaining the predictions of machine learning models in key areas such as finance and medical diagnosis. Counterfactuals are often discussed under the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Emily Black , Zifan Wang , Matt Fredrikson , Anupam Datta

Machine learning (ML) models play an increasingly prevalent role in many software engineering tasks. However, because most models are now powered by opaque deep neural networks, it can be difficult for developers to understand why the model…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Jürgen Cito , Isil Dillig , Vijayaraghavan Murali , Satish Chandra

This work presents Causal Drift Generator (CaDrift), a time-dependent synthetic data generator framework based on Structural Causal Models (SCMs). The framework produces a virtually infinite combination of data streams with controlled shift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Eduardo V. L. Barboza , Jean Paul Barddal , Robert Sabourin , Rafael M. O. Cruz

Causal inference is a central goal across many scientific disciplines. Over the past several decades, three major frameworks have emerged to formalize causal questions and guide their analysis: the potential outcomes framework, structural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Linbo Wang , Thomas Richardson , James Robins

We assume that we have observational data generated from an unknown underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. A DAG is typically not identifiable from observational data, but it is possible to consistently estimate the equivalence…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-02 Marloes H. Maathuis , Markus Kalisch , Peter Bühlmann

Explainable Artificial Intelligence and Formal Argumentation have received significant attention in recent years. Argumentation-based systems often lack explainability while supporting decision-making processes. Counterfactual and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Gianvincenzo Alfano , Sergio Greco , Francesco Parisi , Irina Trubitsyna

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are commonly used to model causal relationships among random variables. In general, learning the DAG structure is both computationally and statistically challenging. Moreover, without additional information,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Ali Shojaie , Wenyu Chen

Counterfactual explanations provide actionable insights to achieve desired outcomes by suggesting minimal changes to input features. However, existing methods rely on fixed sets of mutable features, which makes counterfactual explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Stig Hellemans , Andres Algaba , Sam Verboven , Vincent Ginis

To collaborate effectively with humans, language models must be able to explain their decisions in natural language. We study a specific type of self-explanation: self-generated counterfactual explanations (SCEs), where a model explains its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Harry Mayne , Ryan Othniel Kearns , Yushi Yang , Andrew M. Bean , Eoin Delaney , Chris Russell , Adam Mahdi