Related papers: Cyclic Counterfactuals under Shift-Scale Intervent…

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…

We consider the problem of estimating the counterfactual joint distribution of multiple quantities of interests (e.g., outcomes) in a multivariate causal model extended from the classical difference-in-difference design. Existing methods…

This paper studies the unconditional effects of a general policy intervention, which includes location-scale shifts and simultaneous shifts as special cases. The location-scale shift is intended to study a counterfactual policy aimed at…

Transparency is a fundamental requirement for decision making systems when these should be deployed in the real world. It is usually achieved by providing explanations of the system's behavior. A prominent and intuitive type of explanations…

Existing work on Counterfactual Explanations (CE) and Algorithmic Recourse (AR) has largely focused on single individuals in a static environment: given some estimated model, the goal is to find valid counterfactuals for an individual…

Causal diagrams are logic and graphical tools that depict assumptions about presumed causal relations. Such diagrams have proven effective in tackling a variety of problems in social sciences and epidemiology research yet remain foreign to…

Directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models are a powerful tool for representing causal relationships among jointly distributed random variables, especially concerning data from across different experimental settings. However, it is not always…

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

We propose an architecture for training generative models of counterfactual conditionals of the form, 'can we modify event A to cause B instead of C?', motivated by applications in robot control. Using an 'adversarial training' paradigm, an…

Counterfactual distributions are important ingredients for policy analysis and decomposition analysis in empirical economics. In this article we develop modeling and inference tools for counterfactual distributions based on regression…

Structural causal models (SCMs), with an underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG), provide a powerful analytical framework to describe the interaction mechanisms in large-scale complex systems. However, when the system exhibits extreme…

In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then,…

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Explanation techniques that synthesize small, interpretable changes to a given image while producing desired changes in the model prediction have become popular for introspecting black-box models. Commonly referred to as counterfactuals,…

Reasoning about the effect of interventions and counterfactuals is a fundamental task found throughout the data sciences. A collection of principles, algorithms, and tools has been developed for performing such tasks in the last decades…

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) provide actionable recourse, but most methods assume a static framework with fixed data and a trained classifier. This assumption breaks in evolving data environments, such as data streams, where online…

LLM-based social simulations can generate believable community interactions, enabling ``policy wind tunnels'' where governance interventions are tested before deployment. But believability is not causality. Claims like ``intervention $A$…

Structural causal models provide a unified semantics for interventions and counterfactuals, but most identifiability results rely on restrictive assumptions like global monotonicity, which are often violated in embodied interaction, where…

Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov…

Counterfactuals are widely used in AI to explain how minimal changes to a model's input can lead to a different output. However, established methods for computing counterfactuals typically focus on one-step decision-making, and are not…