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Recently, artificial intelligence-based (AI-based) models for forecasting of global weather have been rapidly developed. Most of the global models are trained on reanalysis datasets with a spatial resolution of 0.25{\deg}*0.25{\deg}.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-28 Pengbo Xu , Xiaogu Zheng , Tianyan Gao , Yu Wang , Junping Yin , Juan Zhang , Xuanze Zhang , San Luo , Zhonglei Wang , Zhimin Zhang , Xiaoguang Hu , Xiaoxu Chen

Various studies identified possible drivers of extremes of Arctic sea ice reduction, such as observed in the summers of 2007 and 2012, including preconditioning, local feedback mechanisms, oceanic heat transport and the synoptic- and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-09 Jerome Sauer , Jonathan Demaeyer , Giuseppe Zappa , François Massonnet , Francesco Ragone

We use "glide charts" (plots of sequences of root mean squared forecast errors as the target date is approached) to evaluate and compare fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice. We first use them to evaluate the simple feature-engineered…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-12 Francis X. Diebold , Maximilian Goebel , Philippe Goulet Coulombe

In situ and remotely sensed observations have potential to facilitate data-driven predictive models for oceanography. A suite of machine learning models, including regression, decision tree and deep learning approaches were developed to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-06-24 Stefan Wolff , Fearghal O'Donncha , Bei Chen

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Wanghan Xu , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Tao Han , Hao Chen , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

Forecasting thermal load is a key component for the majority of optimization solutions for controlling district heating and cooling systems. Recent studies have analysed the results of a number of data-driven methods applied to thermal load…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-18 Davy Geysen , Oscar De Somer , Christian Johansson , Jens Brage , Dirk Vanhoudt

The prediction of solar power generation is a challenging task due to its dependence on climatic characteristics that exhibit spatial and temporal variability. The performance of a prediction model may vary across different places due to…

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Joel Oskarsson , Tomas Landelius , Fredrik Lindsten

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Glenn Liu , Peidong Wang , Matthew Beveridge , Young-Oh Kwon , Iddo Drori

Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-15 Jingyi Xu , Siwei Tu , Weidong Yang , Shuhao Li , Keyi Liu , Yeqi Luo , Lipeng Ma , Ben Fei , Lei Bai

In this chapter, we report on our experience with domestic flexible electric energy demand based on a regular commercial (HVAC)-based heating system in a house. Our focus is on investigating the predictability of the energy demand of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-24 Dirk Reinhardt , Wenqi Cai , Sebastien Gros

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather prediction research is growing rapidly and has shown to be competitive with the advanced dynamic numerical weather prediction models. However, research combining AI-based weather prediction models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Shunji Kotsuki , Kenta Shiraishi , Atsushi Okazaki

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

Multi-model projections in climate studies are performed to quantify uncertainty and improve reliability in climate projections. The challenging issue is that there is no unique way to obtain performance metrics, nor is there any consensus…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-09-13 Ehsan Mosadegh , Iman Babaeian

Numerical weather prediction has traditionally been based on physical models of the atmosphere. Recently, however, the rise of deep learning has created increased interest in purely data-driven medium-range weather forecasting with first…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-03-17 Stephan Rasp , Nils Thuerey

Global warming's impact on high temperatures in various parts of the world has raised concerns. This study investigates long-term temperature trends in four major Ghanaian cities representing distinct climatic zones. Using NASA's Prediction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-23 Joshua Attih

In this paper, gradient boosting is used to forecast the Q(.95) values of air temperature and the Steadman Heat Index. Paris, France during late the spring and summer months is the major focus. Predictors and responses are drawn from the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-25 Richard A. Berk

Probabilistic temperature forecasts are potentially useful to the energy and weather derivatives industries. However, at present, they are little used. There are a number of reasons for this, but we believe this is in part due to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Stephen Jewson , Christine Ziehmann

We report on a set of laboratory experiments to investigate the effect of Arctic warming on the amplitude and drift speed of the mid-latitude jet stream. Our results show that a progressive decrease of the meridional temperature difference…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-08-27 Costanza Rodda , Uwe Harlander , Miklos Vincze