Related papers: Hidden regular variation for stochastic recursions…
Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation…
Risk measures like Marginal Expected Shortfall and Marginal Mean Excess quantify conditional risk and in particular, aid in the understanding of systemic risk. In many such scenarios, models exhibiting heavy tails in the margins and…
We look at joint regular variation properties of MA($\infty$) processes of the form $\mathbf{X} = (X_k, k \in \mathbb{Z})$ where $X_k = \sum_{j=0}^{\infty} \psi_j Z_{k-j}$ and the sequence of random variables $(Z_i, i \in \mathbb{Z})$ are…
Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…
Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…
Data exhibiting heavy-tails in one or more dimensions is often studied using the framework of regular variation. In a multivariate setting this requires identifying specific forms of dependence in the data; this means identifying that the…
We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…
The random variable $1+z_1+z_1z_2+\dots$ appears in many contexts and was shown by Kesten to exhibit a heavy tail distribution. We consider natural extensions of this variable and its associated recursion to $N \times N$ matrices either…
We study solution X of the stochastic equation X = AX +B, where A is a random matrix and B,X are random vectors, the law of (A,B) is given and X is independent of (A,B). The equation is meant in law, the matrix A is 2x2 upper triangular,…
In this paper, we compute multivariate tail risk probabilities where the marginal risks are heavy-tailed and the dependence structure is a Gaussian copula. The marginal heavy-tailed risks are modeled using regular variation which leads to a…
In this paper we discuss the asymptotic behaviour of random contractions $X=RS$, where $R$, with distribution function $F$, is a positive random variable independent of $S\in (0,1)$. Random contractions appear naturally in insurance and…
We develop a framework for regularly varying measures on complete separable metric spaces $\mathbb{S}$ with a closed cone $\mathbb{C}$ removed, extending material in Hult & Lindskog (2006), Das, Mitra & Resnick (2013). Our framework…
Let $A$ be a matrix whose columns $X_1,\dots, X_N$ are independent random vectors in $\mathbb{R}^n$. Assume that the tails of the 1-dimensional marginals decay as $\mathbb{P}(|\langle X_i, a\rangle|\geq t)\leq t^{-p}$ uniformly in $a\in…
It is well known that the product of two independent regularly varying random variables with the same tail index is again regularly varying with this index. In this paper, we provide sharp sufficient conditions for the regular variation…
A bivariate random vector can exhibit either asymptotic independence or dependence between the largest values of its components. When used as a statistical model for risk assessment in fields such as finance, insurance or meteorology, it is…
Multivariate regular variation plays a role assessing tail risk in diverse applications such as finance, telecommunications, insurance and environmental science. The classical theory, being based on an asymptotic model, sometimes leads to…
We attempt to bring some modest unity to three subareas of heavy tail analysis and extreme value theory: limit laws for componentwise maxima of iid random variables;hidden regular variation and asymptotic independence;conditioned limit laws…
We consider the following recurrence relation with random i.i.d. coefficients $(a_n,b_n)$: $$ x_{n+1}=a_{n+1} x_n+b_{n+1} $$ where $a_n\in GL(d,\mathbb{R}),b_n\in \mathbb{R}^d$. Under natural conditions on $(a_n,b_n)$ this equation has a…
The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…
Identifying directions where extreme events occur is a major challenge in multivariate extreme value analysis. In this paper, we use the concept of sparse regular variation introduced by Meyer and Wintenberger (2021)} to infer the tail…