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We apply Lindeberg's method, invented to prove a central limit theorem, to analyze the moderate deviations around such a central limit theorem. In particular, we will show moderate deviation principles for martingales as well as for random…

The order of convergence of the Monte Carlo method is 1/2 which means that we need quadruple samples to decrease the error in half in the numerical simulation. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods reach the same order of error by spending less…

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…

We study some sufficient conditions imposed on the sequence of martingale differences (m.d.) in the separable Banach spaces of continuous functions defined on the metric compact set for the Central Limit Theorem in this space. We taking…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are foundational algorithms for Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. However, most MCMC algorithms are inherently sequential and their time complexity scales linearly with the sequence…

Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

In this paper, we introduce the $\sigma$-antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for a multi-dimensional diffusion which is an extended version of the original antithetic MLMC one introduced by Giles and Szpruch \cite{a}. Our aim…

In this paper we survey some recent results on the central limit theorem and its weak invariance principle for stationary sequences. We also describe several maximal inequalities that are the main tool for obtaining the invariance…

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…

We use the abstract method of (local) martingale problems in order to give criteria for convergence of stochastic processes. Extending previous notions, the formulation we use is neither restricted to Markov processes (or semimartingales),…

The central limit theorem of martingales is the fundamental tool for studying the convergence of stochastic processes, especially stochastic integrals and differential equations. In this paper, general central limit theorems and functional…

We provide a comprehensive characterisation of the theoretical properties of the divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo (DaC-SMC) algorithm. We firmly establish it as a well-founded method by showing that it possesses the same basic…

Adaptive and interacting Markov Chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a novel class of non-Markovian algorithms aimed at improving the simulation efficiency for complicated target distributions. In this paper, we study a general…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages…

We offer in this short report a simple Monte-Carlo method for solving a well-posed non-linear integral equations of second Fredholm's and Volterra's type and built a confidence region for solution in an uniform norm, applying the grounded…

We provide a framework which admits a number of ``marginal'' sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms as particular cases -- including the marginal particle filter [Klaas et al., 2005, in: Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial…

There is an increasing interest in estimating expectations outside of the classical inference framework, such as for models expressed as probabilistic programs. Many of these contexts call for some form of nested inference to be applied. In…

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…