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Introduction: Methods now exist to detect residual confounding. One requires an "indicator" with two key properties: conditional independence of the outcome (given exposure and measured covariates) absent confounding and other model…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-26 W. Dana Flanders , Matthew J. Strickland , Mitchel Klein

Regression for spatially dependent outcomes poses many challenges, for inference and for computation. Non-spatial models and traditional spatial mixed-effects models each have their advantages and disadvantages, making it difficult for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-02 John Hughes

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of multiple data sources for statistical analyses. We consider estimation of causal effects combining big main data with unmeasured confounders and smaller validation data with…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Shu Yang , Peng Ding

We consider learning from labeled data collected across multiple environments, where the data distribution may vary across these environments. This problem is commonly approached from a causal perspective, seeking invariant representations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-30 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

We propose a simple, statistically principled, and theoretically justified method to improve supervised learning when the training set is not representative, a situation known as covariate shift. We build upon a well-established methodology…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Maximilian Autenrieth , David A. van Dyk , Roberto Trotta , David C. Stenning

We address the problem of causal effect estimation where hidden confounders are present, with a focus on two settings: instrumental variable regression with additional observed confounders, and proxy causal learning. Our approach uses a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Haotian Sun , Antoine Moulin , Tongzheng Ren , Arthur Gretton , Bo Dai

Most causal inference methods focus on estimating marginal average treatment effects, but many important causal estimands depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, including the probability of causation and proportions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Zach Shahn , David Madigan

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Simon Bing , Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Causal mediation analysis can improve understanding of the mechanisms underlying epidemiologic associations. However, the utility of natural direct and indirect effect estimation has been limited by the assumption of no confounder of the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E. Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

Spatial areal models encounter the well-known and challenging problem of spatial confounding. This issue makes it arduous to distinguish between the impacts of observed covariates and spatial random effects. Despite previous research and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-08 A. Urdangarin , T. Goicoa , T. Kneib , M. D. Ugarte

The voting method, an ensemble approach for fundamental frequency estimation, is empirically known for its robustness but lacks thorough investigation. This paper provides a principled analysis and improvement of this technique. First, we…

Sound · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Junya Koguchi , Tomoki Koriyama

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yu Wang , Xiangchen Liu , Siguang Li

1 - Spatial confounding is a phenomenon that has been studied extensively in recent years in the statistical literature to describe and mitigate apparent inconsistencies between the results obtained by regression models with and without…

A key objective in spatial statistics is to simulate from the distribution of a spatial process at a selection of unobserved locations conditional on observations (i.e., a predictive distribution) to enable spatial prediction and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Julia Walchessen , Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Raphaël Huser , Mikael Kuusela

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. An established approach is to use estimators based on learned spectral features, that is,…

Making causal inferences from observational studies can be challenging when confounders are missing not at random. In such cases, identifying causal effects is often not guaranteed. Motivated by a real example, we consider a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-31 Jian Sun , Bo Fu

Measuring the causal impact of an advertising campaign on sales is an essential task for advertising companies. Challenges arise when companies run advertising campaigns in multiple stores which are spatially correlated, and when the sales…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-13 Bo Ning , Subhashis Ghosal , Jewell Thomas

In many observational studies, researchers are often interested in studying the effects of multiple exposures on a single outcome. Standard approaches for high-dimensional data such as the lasso assume the associations between the exposures…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Dingke Tang , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Valid causal inference in observational studies often requires controlling for confounders. However, in practice measurements of confounders may be noisy, and can lead to biased estimates of causal effects. We show that we can reduce the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Madeleine Udell
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