Related papers: Epistemic Deep Learning: Enabling Machine Learning…

Decision Focused Learning has emerged as a critical paradigm for integrating machine learning with downstream optimisation. Despite its promise, existing methodologies predominantly rely on probabilistic models and focus narrowly on task…

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine…

Although neural networks have seen tremendous success as predictive models in a variety of domains, they can be overly confident in their predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To be viable for safety-critical applications, like…

Estimating and disentangling epistemic uncertainty, uncertainty that is reducible with more training data, and aleatoric uncertainty, uncertainty that is inherent to the task at hand, is critically important when applying machine learning…

Accurate sensor placement is critical for modeling spatio-temporal systems such as environmental and climate processes. Neural Processes (NPs), particularly Convolutional Conditional Neural Processes (ConvCNPs), provide scalable…

Deep Learning is a consolidated, state-of-the-art Machine Learning tool to fit a function when provided with large data sets of examples. However, in regression tasks, the straightforward application of Deep Learning models provides a point…

Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL) gives access not only to aleatoric uncertainty, as standard neural networks already do, but also to epistemic uncertainty, a measure of confidence a model has in its own predictions. In this article, we show…

Trustworthy ML systems should not only return accurate predictions, but also a reliable representation of their uncertainty. Bayesian methods are commonly used to quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, but alternative…

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with…

The overall predictive uncertainty of a trained predictor can be decomposed into separate contributions due to epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. Under a Bayesian formulation, assuming a well-specified model, the two contributions can be…

Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks,…

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and…

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic…

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

In recent years, the question of the reliability of Machine Learning (ML) methods has acquired significant importance, and the analysis of the associated uncertainties has motivated a growing amount of research. However, most of these…

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying…

When a model knows when it does not know, many possibilities emerge. The first question is how to enable a model to recognize that it does not know. A promising approach is to use confidence, computed from the model's internal signals, to…

There is a significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs), based…