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The recent advanced LIGO detections of gravitational waves from merging binary black holes enhance the prospect of exploring binary evolution via gravitational-wave observations of a population of compact-object binaries. In the face of…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2017-01-25 Ilya Mandel , Will M. Farr , Andrea Colonna , Simon Stevenson , Peter Tiňo , John Veitch

When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-09-13 S. Towers

Making predictions in an unseen environment given data from multiple training environments is a challenging task. We approach this problem from an invariance perspective, focusing on binary classification to shed light on general nonlinear…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Austin Goddard , Kang Du , Yu Xiang

Inverse Ising inference allows pairwise interactions of complex binary systems to be reconstructed from empirical correlations. Typical estimators used for this inference, such as Pseudo-likelihood maximization (PLM), are biased. Using the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2023-07-19 Maximilian Benedikt Kloucek , Thomas Machon , Shogo Kajimura , C. Patrick Royall , Naoki Masuda , Francesco Turci

The Ising model was originally developed to model magnetisation of solids in statistical physics. As a network of binary variables with the probability of becoming 'active' depending only on direct neighbours, the Ising model appears…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-31 Lourens Waldorp , Maarten Marsman , Gunter Maris

The remarkable sensitivity achieved by the planned Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will allow us to observe gravitational-wave signals from the mergers of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-12-22 Sophia Yi , Francesco Iacovelli , Sylvain Marsat , Digvijay Wadekar , Emanuele Berti

Inverse problems in statistical physics are motivated by the challenges of `big data' in different fields, in particular high-throughput experiments in biology. In inverse problems, the usual procedure of statistical physics needs to be…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2017-11-07 H. Chau Nguyen , Riccardo Zecchina , Johannes Berg

Binary classification is a task that involves the classification of data into one of two distinct classes. It is widely utilized in various fields. However, conventional classifiers tend to make overconfident predictions for data that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Shoma Yokura , Akihisa Ichiki

Learning Gibbs distributions using only sufficient statistics has long been recognized as a computationally hard problem. On the other hand, computationally efficient algorithms for learning Gibbs distributions rely on access to full sample…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Abhijith Jayakumar , Shreya Shukla , Marc Vuffray , Andrey Y. Lokhov , Sidhant Misra

The fate of scientific hypotheses often relies on the ability of a computational model to explain the data, quantified in modern statistical approaches by the likelihood function. The log-likelihood is the key element for parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-27 Bas van Opheusden , Luigi Acerbi , Wei Ji Ma

When inferring unknown parameters or comparing different models, data must be compared to underlying theory. Even if a model has no closed-form solution to derive summary statistics, it is often still possible to simulate mock data in order…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-12-20 Niall Jeffrey , Filipe B. Abdalla

We perform a statistical analysis of the binary black hole problem in the post-Newtonian approximation by systematically sampling and evolving the parameter space of initial configurations for quasi-circular inspirals. Through a principal…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2010-12-06 Chad R. Galley , Frank Herrmann , John Silberholz , Manuel Tiglio , Gustavo Guerberoff

Observational studies provide invaluable opportunities to draw causal inference, but they may suffer from biases due to pretreatment difference between treated and control units. Matching is a popular approach to reduce observed covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Xinran Li

Strong gravitational lensing offers constraints on the Hubble constant that are independent of other methods. However, those constraints are subject to uncertainties in lens models. Previous studies suggest that using an elliptical power…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-07-02 Dilys Ruan , Charles R. Keeton

This work considers the problem of binary classification: given training data $x_1, \dots, x_n$ from a certain population, together with associated labels $y_1,\dots, y_n \in \left\{0,1 \right\}$, determine the best label for an element $x$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-04 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Ryan Murray

Binary classifiers trained on a certain proportion of positive items introduce a bias when applied to data sets with different proportions of positive items. Most solutions for dealing with this issue assume that some information on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-18 Marco J. H. Puts , Piet J. H. Daas

The Ising model has become a popular psychometric model for analyzing item response data. The statistical inference of the Ising model is typically carried out via a pseudo-likelihood, as the standard likelihood approach suffers from a high…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Siliang Zhang , Yunxiao Chen

There has been a lot of work fitting Ising models to multivariate binary data in order to understand the conditional dependency relationships between the variables. However, additional covariates are frequently recorded together with the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-09-28 Jie Cheng , Elizaveta Levina , Pei Wang , Ji Zhu

Multi-messenger observations of coalescing binary neutron stars (BNSs) are a direct probe of the expansion history of the universe and carry the potential to shed light on the disparity between low- and high-redshift measurements of the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-20 Michael Müller , Suvodip Mukherjee , Geoffrey Ryan

In particle physics, as in many areas of science, parameter inference relies on simulations to bridge the gap between theory and experiment. Recent developments in simulation-based inference have boosted the sensitivity of analyses;…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-04-23 Ezequiel Alvarez , Sean Benevedes , Manuel Szewc , Jesse Thaler
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