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To effectively study complex causal systems, it is often useful to construct abstractions of parts of the system by discarding irrelevant details while preserving key features. The Information Bottleneck (IB) method is a widely used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Francisco N. F. Q. Simoes , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

Identifying the causal variables of an environment and how to intervene on them is of core value in applications such as robotics and embodied AI. While an agent can commonly interact with the environment and may implicitly perturb the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Phillip Lippe , Sara Magliacane , Sindy Löwe , Yuki M. Asano , Taco Cohen , Efstratios Gavves

Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Rohit Bhattacharya , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-06 Eli Sherman , Ilya Shpitser

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Recent developments in causal inference allow us to transport a causal effect of a time-fixed treatment from a randomized trial to a target population across space but within the same time frame. In contrast to transportability across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Laura Forastiere , Fan Li , Michela Baccini

Discovering causal effects is at the core of scientific investigation but remains challenging when only observational data is available. In practice, causal networks are difficult to learn and interpret, and limited to relatively small…

Semiparametric inference on average causal effects from observational data is based on assumptions yielding identification of the effects. In practice, several distinct identifying assumptions may be plausible; an analyst has to make a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna , Juha Karvanen , Ingeborg Waernbaum

A pressing question resulting from global warming is how infectious diseases will be affected by climate change. Answering this question requires research into the effects of weather on the population dynamics of transmission and infection;…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-21 Laura Andrea Barrero Guevara , Sarah C Kramer , Tobias Kurth , Matthieu Domenech de Cellès

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

As systems are getting more autonomous with the development of artificial intelligence, it is important to discover the causal knowledge from observational sensory inputs. By encoding a series of cause-effect relations between events,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-16 Yuhao Wang , Vlado Menkovski , Hao Wang , Xin Du , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Data scarcity is a tremendous challenge in causal effect estimation. In this paper, we propose to exploit additional data sources to facilitate estimating causal effects in the target population. Specifically, we leverage additional source…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Trong Nghia Hoang , Tze-Yun Leong

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Yashas Annadani , Nick Pawlowski , Joel Jennings , Stefan Bauer , Cheng Zhang , Wenbo Gong

Causal models communicate our assumptions about causes and effects in real-world phe- nomena. Often the interest lies in the identification of the effect of an action which means deriving an expression from the observed probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

Causal structure discovery from observational data is fundamental to the causal understanding of autonomous systems such as medical decision support systems, advertising campaigns and self-driving cars. This is essential to solve well-known…

Distinguishing between cause and effect using time series observational data is a major challenge in many scientific fields. A new perspective has been provided based on the principle of Independence of Causal Mechanisms (ICM), leading to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-01 Michel Besserve , Naji Shajarisales , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Scientists regularly pose questions about treatment effects on outcomes conditional on a post-treatment event. However, causal inference in such settings requires care, even in perfectly executed randomized experiments. Recently, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Chan Park , Mats Stensrud , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Harsh Parikh , Carlos Varjao , Louise Xu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

The advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have opened up many avenues for scientific research, and are adding new dimensions to the process of knowledge creation. However, even the most powerful and versatile of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Jorawar Singh , Kishor Bharti , Arvind