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Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional $\mathcal{O}(10^{\ge 2})$ stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-27 Katiana Kontolati , Dimitrios Loukrezis , Dimitris G. Giovanis , Lohit Vandanapu , Michael D. Shields

Reliable decision-making in complex multi-agent systems requires calibrated predictions and interpretable uncertainty. We introduce SphUnc, a unified framework combining hyperspherical representation learning with structural causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Rong Fu , Chunlei Meng , Jinshuo Liu , Dianyu Zhao , Yongtai Liu , Yibo Meng , Xiaowen Ma , Wangyu Wu , Yangchen Zeng , Shuaishuai Cao , Simon Fong

Surrogate-modelling techniques including Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is commonly used for statistical estimation (aka. Uncertainty Quantification) of quantities of interests obtained from expensive computational models. PCE is a…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-09-05 Alexander Tarakanov , Ahmed H. Elsheikh

In Hezaveh et al. 2017 we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-29 Laurence Perreault Levasseur , Yashar D. Hezaveh , Risa H. Wechsler

Trust and ethical concerns due to the widespread deployment of opaque machine learning (ML) models motivating the need for reliable model explanations. Post-hoc model-agnostic explanation methods addresses this challenge by learning a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Sumedha Chugh , Ranjitha Prasad , Nazreen Shah

Deep learning methods have shown great success in several domains as they process a large amount of data efficiently, capable of solving complex classification, forecast, segmentation, and other tasks. However, they come with the inherent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Dominique Mercier , Andreas Dengel , Sheraz Ahmed

Integrating different molecular layers, i.e., multiomics data, is crucial for unraveling the complexity of diseases; yet, most deep generative models either prioritize predictive performance at the expense of interpretability or enforce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Mihriban Kocak Balik , Pekka Marttinen , Negar Safinianaini

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) represent a probability distribution as a computational graph. Enforcing structural properties on these graphs guarantees that several inference scenarios become tractable. Among these properties, structured…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-03 Meihua Dang , Antonio Vergari , Guy Van den Broeck

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pascal Iversen , Simon Witzke , Katharina Baum , Bernhard Y. Renard

Accurate reconstruction of environmental scalar fields from sparse onboard observations is essential for autonomous vehicles engaged in aquatic monitoring. Beyond point estimates, principled uncertainty quantification is critical for active…

Efficiently identifying the right trajectories for training remains an open problem in GFlowNets. To address this, it is essential to prioritize exploration in regions of the state space where the reward distribution has not been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Sajan Muhammad , Salem Lahlou

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Rileigh Bandy , Enrico Camporeale , Andong Hu , Thomas Berger , Rebecca Morrison

Accurate quantification of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties is essential when deploying Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in high-stakes applications such as drug discovery and financial fraud detection, where reliable predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Linlin Yu , Kangshuo Li , Pritom Kumar Saha , Yifei Lou , Feng Chen

Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-19 M. M. A. Valiuddin , R. J. G. van Sloun , C. G. A. Viviers , P. H. N. de With , F. van der Sommen

This paper presents a novel framework for characterizing dissipativity of uncertain systems whose dynamics evolve according to differential-algebraic equations. Sufficient conditions for dissipativity (specializing to, e.g., stability or…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-13 Emily Jensen , Neelay Junnarkar , Murat Arcak , Xiaofan Wu , Suat Gumussoy

This paper presents an efficient surrogate modeling strategy for the uncertainty quantification and Bayesian calibration of a hydrological model. In particular, a process-based dynamical urban drainage simulator that predicts the discharge…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-14 Joseph B. Nagel , Jörg Rieckermann , Bruno Sudret

Commonsense knowledge-graphs (CKGs) are important resources towards building machines that can 'reason' on text or environmental inputs and make inferences beyond perception. While current CKGs encode world knowledge for a large number of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-19 Shantanu Jaiswal , Liu Yan , Dongkyu Choi , Kenneth Kwok

Complex physical systems, from supersonic turbulence to the macroscopic structure of the universe, are governed by continuous multiscale dynamics. While modern machine learning architectures excel at mapping the high-dimensional observables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Mengke Zhao , Guang-Xing Li , Duo Xu , Keping Qiu

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in predictions and projections arising from irreducible internal climate variability is critical for informed decision making. Such uncertainty is typically assessed using ensembles produced with physics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Parsa Gooya , Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso , Johannes Exenberger

Deep Gaussian Processes learn probabilistic data representations for supervised learning by cascading multiple Gaussian Processes. While this model family promises flexible predictive distributions, exact inference is not tractable.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-23 Jakob Lindinger , David Reeb , Christoph Lippert , Barbara Rakitsch