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Related papers: Sensitivity Analysis when Generalizing Causal Effe…

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We propose a novel method for sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding in causal inference. The method builds on a copula-based causal graphical normalizing flow that we term $\rho$-GNF, where $\rho \in [-1,+1]$ is the sensitivity…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Sourabh Balgi , Marc Braun , Jose M. Peña , Adel Daoud

A powerful tool for the analysis of nonrandomized observational studies has been the potential outcomes model. Utilization of this framework allows analysts to estimate average treatment effects. This article considers the situation in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-31 Debashis Ghosh , Efrén Cruz-Cortés

While estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-18 Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ilya Shpitser

Who should we prioritize for intervention when we cannot estimate intervention effects? In many applied domains (e.g., advertising, customer retention, and behavioral nudging) prioritization is guided by predictive models that estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Carlos Fernández-Loría , Jorge Loría

Estimating externally valid causal effects is a foundational problem in the social and biomedical sciences. Generalizing or transporting causal estimates from an experimental sample to a target population of interest relies on an overlap…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-29 Melody Huang

The doubly robust estimator, which models both the propensity score and outcomes, is a popular approach to estimate the average treatment effect in the potential outcome setting. The primary appeal of this estimator is its theoretical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-11 Kaoru Babasaki , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn

We take steps towards causally interpretable meta-analysis by describing methods for transporting causal inferences from a collection of randomized trials to a new target population, one-trial-at-a-time and pooling all trials. We discuss…

Despite their popularity, machine learning predictions are sensitive to potential unobserved predictors. This paper proposes a general algorithm that assesses how the omission of an unobserved variable with high explanatory power could…

No unmeasured confounding is often assumed in estimating treatment effects in observational data when using approaches such as propensity scores and inverse probability weighting. However, in many such studies due to the limitation of the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-08-06 Rong Huang , Ronghui Xu , Parambir S. Dulai

Policy learning is an important component of many real-world learning systems. A major challenge in policy learning is how to adapt efficiently to unseen environments or tasks. Recently, it has been suggested to exploit invariant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Sorawit Saengkyongam , Niklas Pfister , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy , Jonas Peters

We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

We propose a doubly robust approach to characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity in observational studies. We develop a frequentist inferential procedure that utilizes posterior distributions for both the propensity score and outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-21 Heejun Shin , Joseph Antonelli

Evaluations often inform future program implementation decisions. However, the implementation context may differ, sometimes substantially, from the evaluation study context. This difference leads to uncertainty regarding the relevance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-14 Irina Degtiar , Mariel Finucane

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of counterfactual policies on the unconditional quantiles of an outcome variable. For a given counterfactual policy, we obtain identified sets for the effect of both marginal and global…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-07 Julian Martinez-Iriarte

Causal inference methods have been applied in various fields where researchers want to estimate treatment effects. In traditional causal inference settings, one assumes that the outcome of a unit does not depend on treatments of other…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Kelly Kung , Daniel L. Sussman

The identification of causal effects in observational studies typically relies on two standard assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. However, both assumptions are often questionable in practice: unconfoundedness is inherently…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Han Cui , Xinran Li

Randomized clinical trials are the gold standard when estimating the average treatment effect. However, they are usually not a random sample from the real-world population because of the inclusion/exclusion rules. Meanwhile, observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-11 Kuan Jiang , Wenjie Hu , Shu Yang , Xinxing Lai , Xiaohua Zhou

Recent research in causal inference has made important progress in addressing challenges to the external validity of trial findings. Such methods weight trial participant data to more closely resemble the distribution of effect-modifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-18 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling

Limited overlap between treated and control groups is a key challenge in observational analysis. Standard approaches like trimming importance weights can reduce variance but introduce a fundamental bias. We propose a sensitivity framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Yuanzhe Ma , Yian Huang , Hongseok Namkoong