English
Related papers

Related papers: Autocorrelation Test under Frequent Mean Shifts

200 papers

Multimodal structures in the sampling density (e.g. two competing phases) can be a serious problem for traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), because correct sampling of the different structures can only be guaranteed for infinite…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-11 M. Daghofer , M. Konegger , H. G. Evertz , W. von der Linden

We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Davide La Vecchia , Alban Moor , Olivier Scaillet

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Rasool Fakoor , Jonas Mueller , Zachary C. Lipton , Pratik Chaudhari , Alexander J. Smola

We study the problem of coincidence detection in time series data, where we aim to determine whether the appearance of simultaneous or near-simultaneous events in two time series is indicative of some shared underlying signal or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Ruiting Liang , Samuel Dyson , Rina Foygel Barber , Daniel E. Holz

This article studies estimation of a stationary autocovariance structure in the presence of an unknown number of mean shifts. Here, a Yule-Walker moment estimator for the autoregressive parameters in a dependent time series contaminated by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-26 Colin Gallagher , Rebecca Killick , Robert Lund , Xueheng Shi

A new portmanteau diagnostic test for vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that is based on the determinant of the standardized multivariate residual autocorrelations is derived. The new test statistic may be considered an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-03 Esam Mahdi , A. Ian McLeod

This paper proposes a flexible framework for inferring large-scale time-varying and time-lagged correlation networks from multivariate or high-dimensional non-stationary time series with piecewise smooth trends. Built on a novel and unified…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-13 Lujia Bai , Weichi Wu

Reliable inference for spatial regression remains challenging because it requires the correct specification of the spatial dependence structure, the mean trend, and the error distribution. Existing parametric testing methods rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Kanghyun Wi , Hyoeun Kim , Tomáš Mrkvička , Jorge Mateu , Jaewoo Park

The statistical analysis of neuronal spike trains by models of point processes often relies on the assumption of constant process parameters. However, it is a well-known problem that the parameters of empirical spike trains can be highly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-13 Michael Messer , Kauê M. Costa , Jochen Roeper , Gaby Schneider

Change Point Detection (CPD) methods identify the times associated with changes in the trends and properties of time series data in order to describe the underlying behaviour of the system. For instance, detecting the changes and anomalies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-08 Shohreh Deldari , Daniel V. Smith , Hao Xue , Flora D. Salim

By means of Metropolis Monte Carlo simulations of a coarse-grained model for flexible polymers, we investigate how the integrated autocorrelation times of different energetic and structural quantities depend on the temperature. We show…

Computational Physics · Physics 2014-08-19 Kai Qi , Michael Bachmann

The concept of distance covariance/correlation was introduced recently to characterize dependence among vectors of random variables. We review some statistical aspects of distance covariance/correlation function and we demonstrate its…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-13 Dominic Edelmann , Konstantinos Fokianos , Maria Pitsillou

This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-23 Heejoon Han , Oliver Linton , Tatsushi Oka , Yoon-Jae Whang

We propose generalized portmanteau-type test statistics in the frequency domain to test independence between two stationary time series. The test statistics are formed analogous to the one in Chen and Deo (2004, Econometric Theory 20,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-14 Xiaofeng Shao

Testing for change points in sequences of covariance matrices is an important and equally challenging problem in statistical methodology with applications in various fields. Motivated by the observation that even in cases where the ratio…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Nina Dörnemann , Holger Dette

Detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a time series, so-called changepoints, is important for many applications. However, many procedures rely on the estimation of nuisance parameters (like long-run variance). Under the alternative (a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Michal Pešta , Martin Wendler

When changes are performed on an automated production system (aPS), new faults can be accidentally introduced in the system, which are called regressions. A common method for finding these faults is regression testing. In most cases, this…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Sebastian Ulewicz , Birgit Vogel-Heuser

Classical change point analysis aims at (1) detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a possibly non-stationary time series and at (2) identifying regions where the mean exhibits a piecewise constant behavior. In many applications however, it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-17 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification in change point regressions, where the signal can be piecewise polynomial of arbitrary but fixed degree. That is we seek disjoint intervals which, uniformly at a given confidence level,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Shakeel Gavioli-Akilagun , Piotr Fryzlewicz