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A key objective in spatial statistics is to simulate from the distribution of a spatial process at a selection of unobserved locations conditional on observations (i.e., a predictive distribution) to enable spatial prediction and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Julia Walchessen , Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Raphaël Huser , Mikael Kuusela

We propose a new conditional dependence measure and a statistical test for conditional independence. The measure is based on the difference between analytic kernel embeddings of two well-suited distributions evaluated at a finite set of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-17 Meyer Scetbon , Laurent Meunier , Yaniv Romano

Ensuring robust model performance in diverse real-world scenarios requires addressing generalizability across domains with covariate shifts. However, no formal procedure exists for statistically evaluating generalizability in machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Daniel de Vassimon Manela , Linying Yang , Robin J. Evans

Previously, we showed that computational mechanic's causal states -- predictively-equivalent trajectory classes for a stochastic dynamical system -- can be cast into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The result is a widely-applicable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Alexandra M. Jurgens , Nicolas Brodu

Through one decade's development, the kernel-based regularization method (KRM) has become a complement to the classical maximum likelihood/prediction error method and an emerging new system identification paradigm. One recent example is its…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-29 Xiaozhu Fang , Tianshi Chen

The behavior of extreme observations is well-understood for time series or spatial data, but little is known if the data generating process is a structural causal model (SCM). We study the behavior of extremes in this model class, both for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Sebastian Engelke , Nicola Gnecco , Frank Röttger

In order to characterize molecular structures we introduce configurational fingerprint vectors which are counterparts of quantities used experimentally to identify structures. The Euclidean distance between the configurational fingerprint…

An appropriate distance metric is crucial for categorical data clustering, as the distance between categorical data cannot be directly calculated. However, the distances between attribute values usually vary in different clusters induced by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Taixi Chen , Yiu-ming Cheung , Yiqun Zhang

We link and extend two approaches to estimating time-varying treatment effects on repeated continuous outcomes--time-varying Difference in Differences (DiD; see Roth et al. (2023) and Chaisemartin et al. (2023) for reviews) and Structural…

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining.…

In the field of causal modeling, potential outcomes (PO) and structural causal models (SCMs) stand as the predominant frameworks. However, these frameworks face notable challenges in practically modeling counterfactuals, formalized as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Heyang Gong , Chaochao Lu , Yu Zhang

Causal modelling is a tool for generating causal explanations of observed correlations and has led to a deeper understanding of correlations in quantum networks. Existing frameworks for quantum causality tend to focus on acyclic causal…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-03-14 V. Vilasini , Roger Colbeck

We introduce the Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy test (KCCSD test), a non-parametric, kernel-based test for assessing the calibration of probabilistic models with well-defined scores. In contrast to previous methods, our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-17 Pierre Glaser , David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Arthur Gretton

Recently, Bj{\o}ru et al. proposed a novel divide-and-conquer algorithm for bounding counterfactual probabilities in structural causal models (SCMs). They assumed that the SCMs were learned from purely observational data, leading to an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Anna Rodum Bjøru , Rafael Cabañas , Helge Langseth , Antonio Salmerón

Mean embeddings provide an extremely flexible and powerful tool in machine learning and statistics to represent probability distributions and define a semi-metric (MMD, maximum mean discrepancy; also called N-distance or energy distance),…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-17 Matthieu Lerasle , Zoltan Szabo , Timothee Mathieu , Guillaume Lecue

Causal reasoning provides a language to ask important interventional and counterfactual questions beyond purely statistical association. In medical imaging, for example, we may want to study the causal effect of genetic, environmental, or…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Rajat Rasal , Daniel C. Castro , Nick Pawlowski , Ben Glocker

Measurements of systems taken along a continuous functional dimension, such as time or space, are ubiquitous in many fields, from the physical and biological sciences to economics and engineering.Such measurements can be viewed as…

Explanatory studies, such as randomized controlled trials, are targeted to extract the true causal effect of interventions on outcomes and are by design adjusted for covariates through randomization. On the contrary, observational studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-02 Riddhiman Adib , Sheikh Iqbal Ahamed , Mohammad Adibuzzaman

We study the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) in the context of critical transitions modelled by fast-slow stochastic dynamical systems. We establish a new link between the dynamical theory of critical transitions with the statistical aspects…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2019-01-30 Boumediene Hamzi , Christian Kuehn , Sameh Mohamed

In this paper, I introduce a Sequence-based Multiscale Model (SeqMM) for the biomolecular data analysis. With the combination of spectral graph method, I reveal the essential difference between the global scale models and local scale ones…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-03-08 Kelin Xia