English
Related papers

Related papers: Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting with Robust R…

200 papers

A zeroth-order Hessian estimator aims to recover the Hessian matrix of an objective function at any given point, using minimal finite-difference computations. This paper studies zeroth-order Hessian estimation for low-rank Hessians, from a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-09 Tianyu Wang , Zicheng Wang , Jiajia Yu

Data-driven decision-making has drawn scrutiny from policy makers due to fears of potential discrimination, and a growing literature has begun to develop fair statistical techniques. However, these techniques are often specialized to one…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Anil Aswani , Matt Olfat

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Han Lin Shang

Accurate forecasting of sequential data streams is a cornerstone of modern Web services, supporting applications such as traffic management, user behavior modeling, and online anomaly prevention. However, in many Web environments, new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Shichao Ma , Zhengyang Zhou , Qihe Huang , Binwu Wang , Yang Wang

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Wentao Gao , Xiaojing Du , Wenjun Yu , Xiongren Chen , Yifan Guo , Feiyu Yang

A common forecasting setting in real world applications considers a set of possibly heterogeneous time series of the same domain. Due to different properties of each time series such as length, obtaining forecasts for each individual time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-31 Lukas Neubauer , Peter Filzmoser

Asynchronous trading in high-frequency financial markets introduces significant biases into econometric analysis, distorting risk estimates and leading to suboptimal portfolio decisions. Existing synchronization methods, such as the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-17 Xinbing Kong , Cheng Liu , Bin Wu

Time series forecasting uses historical data to predict future trends, leveraging the relationships between past observations and available features. In this paper, we propose RAFT, a retrieval-augmented time series forecasting method to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Sungwon Han , Seungeon Lee , Meeyoung Cha , Sercan O Arik , Jinsung Yoon

In this work we propose a novel concept of a hierarchical confusion matrix, opening the door for popular confusion matrix based (flat) evaluation measures from binary classification problems, while considering the peculiarities of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Kevin Riehl , Michael Neunteufel , Martin Hemberg

Demand forecasting in competitive, uncertain business environments requires models that can integrate multiple evaluation perspectives rather than being restricted to hyperparameter optimization based on a single metric. This traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Adolfo González , Víctor Parada

We consider the matrix completion problem of recovering a structured low rank matrix with partially observed entries with mixed data types. Vast majority of the solutions have proposed computationally feasible estimators with strong…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-27 Daqian Sun , Martin T. Wells

Deep learning has significantly advanced time series forecasting through its powerful capacity to capture sequence relationships. However, training these models with the Mean Square Error (MSE) loss often results in over-smooth predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Yanru Sun , Zongxia Xie , Dongyue Chen , Emadeldeen Eldele , Qinghua Hu

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a…

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Roberto Neglia , Andrea Cini , Michael M. Bronstein , Filippo Maria Bianchi

This paper deals with the time-varying high dimensional covariance matrix estimation. We propose two covariance matrix estimators corresponding with a time-varying approximate factor model and a time-varying approximate characteristic-based…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-29 Jaeheon Jung

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

We propose a new formulation of robust regression by integrating all realizations of the uncertainty set and taking an averaged approach to obtain the optimal solution for the ordinary least squares regression problem. We show that this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Dimitris Bertsimas , Yu Ma

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating parameters of a linear regression model. Using a hybrid systems framework, a hybrid algorithm is proposed allowing the estimate to converge to the exact value of the unknown parameters in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-04 Adnane Saoud , Ryan S. Johnson , Ricardo G. Sanfelice

Time series has attracted a lot of attention in many fields today. Time series forecasting algorithm based on complex network analysis is a research hotspot. How to use time series information to achieve more accurate forecasting is a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Tianxiang Zhan , Fuyuan Xiao

Time series refer to a series of data points indexed in time order, which can be found in various fields, e.g., transportation, healthcare, and finance. Accurate time series forecasting can enhance optimization planning and decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Ling Chen , Jiahua Cui