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The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-21 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

This paper provides a new approach for identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated under a linear factor model that allows for multiple time-varying unobservables. Unlike the majority of the literature on…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-28 Koki Fusejima , Takuya Ishihara

Using observational data to estimate the effect of a treatment is a powerful tool for decision-making when randomized experiments are infeasible or costly. However, observational data often yields biased estimates of treatment effects,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-01 Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Chenxiao Yang , Qitian Wu , Qingsong Wen , Zhiqiang Zhou , Liang Sun , Junchi Yan

This paper studies the cumulative causal effects of sequential treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders. It is a critical issue in sequential decision-making scenarios where treatment decisions and outcomes dynamically evolve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Yingrong Wang , Anpeng Wu , Baohong Li , Ziyang Xiao , Ruoxuan Xiong , Qing Han , Kun Kuang

Epidemiological studies are often concerned with estimating causal effects of a sequence of treatment decisions on survival outcomes. In many settings, treatment decisions do not occur at fixed, pre-specified followup times. Rather, timing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-23 Arman Oganisian

The causal effect of a treatment can vary from person to person based on their individual characteristics and predispositions. Mining for patterns of individual-level effect differences, a problem known as heterogeneous treatment effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

This paper investigates the case of interference, when a unit's treatment also affects other units' outcome. When interference is at work, policy evaluation mostly relies on the use of randomized experiments under cluster interference and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Laura Forastiere , Davide Del Prete , Valerio Leone Sciabolazza

Recent developments in sequential experimental design look to construct a policy that can efficiently navigate the design space, in a way that maximises the expected information gain. Whilst there is work on achieving tractable policies for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Yasir Zubayr Barlas , Kizito Salako

Educational systems have traditionally been evaluated using cross-sectional studies, namely, examining a pretest, posttest, and single intervention. Although this is a popular approach, it does not model valuable information such as…

Applications · Statistics 2021-08-03 Manie Tadayon , Greg Pottie

Robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a fundamental challenge for optimal decision-making in domains ranging from personalized medicine to educational policy. In recent years, predictive machine learning has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani

Deep learning fostered a leap ahead in automated skin lesion analysis in the last two years. Those models are expensive to train and difficult to parameterize. Objective: We investigate methodological issues for designing and evaluating…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Eduardo Valle , Michel Fornaciali , Afonso Menegola , Julia Tavares , Flávia Vasques Bittencourt , Lin Tzy Li , Sandra Avila

Experimentation is widely utilized for causal inference and data-driven decision-making across disciplines. In an A/B experiment, for example, an online business randomizes two different treatments (e.g., website designs) to their customers…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Wenxuan Guo , JungHo Lee , Panos Toulis

Researchers are often interested in using longitudinal data to estimate the causal effects of hypothetical time-varying treatment interventions on the mean or risk of a future outcome. Standard regression/conditioning methods for…

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-10 Erik Sverdrup , Yifan Cui

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , Nathan Kallus , David Sontag

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects when both experimental and observational data are available. Since the long-term outcome is observed only after a long delay, it is not measured in the experimental…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Yuhao Wang

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-24 Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui