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This paper studies identification and estimation of average causal effects, such as average marginal or treatment effects, in fixed effects logit models with short panels. Relating the identified set of these effects to an extremal moment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-20 Laurent Davezies , Xavier D'Haultfœuille , Louise Laage

This article studies the benefits of using spatially randomized experimental designs which partition the experimental area into distinct, non-overlapping units with treatments assigned randomly. Such designs offer improved policy evaluation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Ying Yang , Chengchun Shi , Fang Yao , Shouyang Wang , Hongtu Zhu

This paper provides a solution to the evaluation of treatment effects in selective samples when neither instruments nor parametric assumptions are available. We provide sharp bounds for average treatment effects under a conditional…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-17 Phillip Heiler , Asbjørn Kaufmann , Bezirgen Veliyev

We propose a new nonparametric modeling framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-25 Eric Auerbach , Hongchang Guo , Max Tabord-Meehan

Classical approaches to experimental design assume that intervening on one unit does not affect other units. There are many important settings, however, where this non-interference assumption does not hold, as when running experiments on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-01 Stefan Wager , Kuang Xu

A preference order or ranking aggregated from pairwise comparison data is commonly understood as a strict total order. However, in real-world scenarios, some items are intrinsically ambiguous in comparisons, which may very well be an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-31 Qianqian Xu , Jiechao Xiong , Xinwei Sun , Zhiyong Yang , Xiaochun Cao , Qingming Huang , Yuan Yao

The problem of allocating scarce items to individuals is an important practical question in market design. An increasingly popular set of mechanisms for this task uses the concept of market equilibrium: individuals report their preferences,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-12-11 Riley Murray , Christian Kroer , Alex Peysakhovich , Parikshit Shah

We propose a random-effects approach to missing values for generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) analysis. The method converts a GLMM with missing covariates to another GLMM without missing covariates. The standard GLMM analysis tools for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Thuan Nguyen , Jiangshan Zhang , Jiming Jiang

We develop a marginal treatment effect based method to learn about causal effects in multiple treatment models with discrete instruments. We allow selection into treatment to be governed by a general class of threshold crossing models that…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Vishal Kamat , Samuel Norris , Matthew Pecenco

We develop a general model of discrete choice that incorporates peer effects in preferences and consideration sets. We characterize the equilibrium behavior and establish conditions under which all parts of the model can be recovered from a…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-05 Nail Kashaev , Natalia Lazzati , Ruli Xiao

We investigate the effects of the social interactions of a finite set of agents on an equilibrium pricing mechanism. A derivative written on non-tradable underlyings is introduced to the market and priced in an equilibrium framework by…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-14 Jana Bielagk , Arnaud Lionnet , Goncalo Dos Reis

Randomized trials are widely considered as the gold standard for evaluating the effects of decision policies. Trial data is, however, drawn from a population which may differ from the intended target population and this raises a problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Sofia Ek , Dave Zachariah

We study the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem in an infinite-horizon Markov decision process with continuous states and actions. We recast the $Q$-function estimation into a special form of the nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-28 Xiaohong Chen , Zhengling Qi

Motivated by applications in precision medicine and treatment effect heterogeneity, recent research has focused on estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) using machine learning (ML). CATE estimates may represent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Oliver J. Hines , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

Empirical research in economics often examines the behavior of agents located in a geographic space. In such cases, statistical inference is complicated by the interdependence of economic outcomes across locations. A common approach to…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-21 Stefano DellaVigna , Guido Imbens , Woojin Kim , David M. Ritzwoller

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos

Markov reward processes (MRPs) are used to model stochastic phenomena arising in operations research, control engineering, robotics, and artificial intelligence, as well as communication and transportation networks. In many of these cases,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-17 Ashwin Pananjady , Martin J. Wainwright

We derive the asymptotic theory of Bai (2009)'s interactive fixed effects estimator for unbalanced panels in which the source of attrition is conditionally random. For inference, we propose a method of alternating projections algorithm…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-19 Daniel Czarnowske , Amrei Stammann

Many regulatory and analytic problems require that a prohibited variable influence a decision only through a designated allowable channel -- a conditional-independence requirement that arises in path-specific fairness, the handling of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Zou Yang , Sophia Xiao , Bijan Mazaheri

Multivariate data occurs in a wide range of fields, with ever more flexible model specifications being proposed, often within a multivariate generalised linear mixed effects (MGLME) framework. In this article, we describe an extended…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-09 Michael J. Crowther