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In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-29 Grégory Bournassenko

Since its advent in 2009, Bitcoin, a cryptography-enabled peer-to-peer digital payment system, has been gaining increasing attention from both academia and industry. An effort designed to overcome a cluster of bottlenecks inherent in…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-05-18 Ling Cheng , Feida Zhu , Huiwen Liu , Chunyan Miao

The growth potential of a crypto(currency) project can be measured by the use cases spurred by the underlying technology. However, these projects are usually distributed, with a weak feedback schemes. Hence, a metric that is widely used as…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Maurantonio Caprolu , Roberto Di Pietro , Flavio Lombardi , Elia Onofri

We study the information dynamics between the largest Bitcoin exchange markets during the bubble in 2017-2018. By analysing high-frequency market-microstructure observables with different information theoretic measures for dynamical…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-04 Vaiva Vasiliauskaite , Fabrizio Lillo , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

Money launderers exploit the weaknesses in detection systems by purposefully placing their ill-gotten money into multiple accounts, at different banks. That money is then layered and moved around among mule accounts to obscure the origin…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Haseeb Tariq , Marwan Hassani

Blockchain transaction networks are complex, with evolving temporal patterns and inter-node relationships. To detect illicit activities, we propose a hybrid GCN-GRU model that captures both structural and sequential features. Using real…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-10 Gyuyeon Na , Minjung Park , Hyeonjeong Cha , Soyoun Kim , Sunyoung Moon , Sua Lee , Jaeyoung Choi , Hyemin Lee , Sangmi Chai

How crypto flows among Bitcoin users is an important question for understanding the structure and dynamics of the cryptoasset at a global scale. We compiled all the blockchain data of Bitcoin from its genesis to the year 2020, identified…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-01 Yoshi Fujiwara , Rubaiyat Islam

Off-chain transaction channels represent one of the leading techniques to scale the transaction throughput in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. They allow multiple agents to route payments through one another. So far, the topology and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Yotam Sali , Aviv Zohar

Money laundering is a global phenomenon with wide-reaching social and economic consequences. Cryptocurrencies are particularly susceptible due to the lack of control by authorities and their anonymity. Thus, it is important to develop new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Catarina Oliveira , João Torres , Maria Inês Silva , David Aparício , João Tiago Ascensão , Pedro Bizarro

XRP Ledger is one of the oldest, well-established blockchains. Despite the popularity of the XRP Ledger, little is known about its underlying peer-to-peer network. The structural properties of a network impact its efficiency, security and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-01-11 Vytautas Tumas , Sean Rivera , Damien Magoni , Radu State

Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-20 Stanisław Drożdż , Robert Gębarowski , Ludovico Minati , Paweł Oświęcimka , Marcin Wątorek

Blockchain is a decentralized ledger used to securely exchange digital currency, perform deals and transactions efficient manner, each user of the network has access to the least copy of the encrypted ledger so that they can validate a new…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Bosubabu Sambana

Cybercriminals often leverage Bitcoin for their illicit activities. In this work, we propose back-and-forth exploration, a novel automated Bitcoin transaction tracing technique to identify cybercrime financial relationships. Given seed…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Gibran Gomez , Pedro Moreno-Sanchez , Juan Caballero

Modeling evolving interactions among entities is critical in many real-world tasks. For example, predicting driver maneuvers in traffic requires tracking how neighboring vehicles accelerate, brake, and change lanes relative to one another…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Osama Mohammed , Jiaxin Pan , Mojtaba Nayyeri , Daniel Hernández , Steffen Staab

We study the probabilistic distribution of the confirmation time of Bitcoin transactions, conditional on the current memory pool (i.e., the queue of transactions awaiting confirmation). The results of this paper are particularly interesting…

Performance · Computer Science 2018-10-22 David Koops

With the wide application of blockchain in the financial field, the rise of various types of cybercrimes has brought great challenges to the security of blockchain. In order to better understand this emerging market and explore more…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Yunyi Xie , Jie Jin , Jian Zhang , Shanqing Yu , Qi Xuan

Blockchain technology, with implications in the financial domain, offers data in the form of large-scale transaction networks. Analyzing transaction networks facilitates fraud detection, market analysis, and supports government regulation.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-01-23 Junliang Luo , Xue Liu

Blockchains are typically managed by peer-to-peer (P2P) networks providing the support and substrate to the so-called distributed ledger (DLT), a replicated, shared, and synchronized data structure, geographically spread across multiple…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2020-11-30 Sami Ben Mariem , Pedro Casas , Matteo Romiti , Benoit Donnet , Rainer Stütz , Bernhard Haslhofer

In this paper, we study the ability to make the short-term prediction of the exchange price fluctuations towards the United States dollar for the Bitcoin market. We use the data of realized volatility collected from one of the largest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-08 Tian Guo , Albert Bifet , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

Following the birth of Bitcoin and the introduction of the Ethereum ERC20 protocol a decade ago, recent years have witnessed a growing number of cryptographic tokens that are being introduced by researchers, private sector companies and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-20 Shahar Somin , Goren Gordon , Alex Pentland , Erez Shmueli , Yaniv Altshuler