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In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Youssef Marzouk , Yan Zhou

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

This paper studies the multilevel Monte-Carlo estimator for the expectation of a maximum of conditional expectations. This problem arises naturally when considering many stress tests and appears in the calculation of the interest rate…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-14 Aurélien Alfonsi , Adel Cherchali , Jose Arturo Infante Acevedo

While multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations with random coefficients enjoy great popularity, combinations with spatial adaptivity seem to be rare. We present an adaptive MLMC…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-20 Ralf Kornhuber , Evgenia Youett

Control variates are variance reduction techniques for Monte Carlo estimators. They play a critical role in improving Monte Carlo estimators in scientific and machine learning applications that involve computationally expensive integrals.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Kaiyu Li , Yiming Yang , Xiaoyuan Cheng , Yi He , Zhuo Sun

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for continuous-time Markov chains, first introduced by Anderson and Higham (SIAM Multiscal Model. Simul. 10(1), 2012), is a highly efficient simulation technique that can be used to estimate various…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-08 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raul Tempone

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) reduces the total computational cost of financial option pricing by combining SDE approximations with multiple resolutions. This paper explores a further avenue for reducing cost and improving power efficiency…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-12 Irina-Beatrice Haas , Michael B. Giles

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a popular method for estimating the statistics (e.g. expectation and variance) of a random variable. Its slow convergence has led to the emergence of advanced techniques to reduce the variance of the MC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Mohamed Reda El Amri , Paul Mycek , Sophie Ricci , Matthias De Lozzo

By adopting a Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework, we show that only a handful of costly fine scale computations are needed to accurately estimate statistics of the failure of a composite structure, as opposed to the thousands typically…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-07-25 T. J. Dodwell , S. Kinston , R. Butler , R. T. Haftka , Nam H. Kim , R. Scheichl

In this paper, we consider a Monte Carlo simulation method (MinMC) that approximates prices and risk measures for a range $\Gamma$ of model parameters at once. The simulation method that we study has recently gained popularity [HS20, FPP22,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Nils Detering , Nicole Hufnagel , Paul Krühner

A number of optimal decision problems with uncertainty can be formulated into a stochastic optimal control framework. The Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) algorithm is a popular numerical method to approach solutions of such stochastic…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-23 Zhiyi Shen , Chengguo Weng

A multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for quantifying model-form uncertainties associated with the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations is presented. Two, high-dimensional, stochastic extensions of the RANS equations are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-11-05 Prashant Kumar , Martin Schmelzer , Richard P. Dwight

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-30 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

In this article, we study the application of Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) approaches to numerical random homogenization. Our objective is to compute the expectation of some functionals of the homogenized coefficients, or of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-01-15 Yalchin Efendiev , Cornelia Kronsbein , Frederic Legoll

We present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of variably saturated porous media flow that are modeled using the Richards' equation. We propose a stochastic extension for the empirical models that are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-22 Prashant Kumar , Carmen Rodrigo , Francisco J. Gaspar , Cornelis W. Oosterlee

In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-16 Sundar Ganesh , Fabio Nobile

We show that deliberately introducing a nested simulation stage can lead to significant variance reductions when comparing two stopping times by Monte Carlo. We derive the optimal number of nested simulations and prove that the algorithm is…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-02-04 Fabian Dickmann , Nikolaus Schweizer

This paper considers the problem of optimizing the average tracking error for an elliptic partial differential equation with an uncertain lognormal diffusion coefficient. In particular, the application of the multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-09-30 Philipp A. Guth , Andreas Van Barel

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-21 Sohail Reddy , Hillary Fairbanks

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli