Related papers: Uncertainty Estimation by Flexible Evidential Deep…

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Traditional deep neural nets (NNs) have shown the state-of-the-art performance in the task of classification in various applications. However, NNs have not considered any types of uncertainty associated with the class probabilities to…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

Despite the strong predictive performance of deep learning models for traffic prediction, their widespread deployment in real-world intelligent transportation systems has been restrained by a lack of interpretability. Uncertainty…

In this paper, we adopt conformal prediction, a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, to obtain confidence prediction intervals with coverage guarantees for Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) regression. Initially, we…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in computational fluid dynamics to assess the reliability and robustness of simulations, given the uncertainties in input parameters. OpenLB is an open-source lattice Boltzmann method library…

Reinforcement learning agents are faced with two types of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty stems from limited data and is useful for exploration, whereas aleatoric uncertainty arises from stochastic environments and must be accounted for…

Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems. The growing risk of wildfires increases the demand for forecasting models that are not only accurate but also reliable.…

Many problems in engineering and sciences require the solution of large scale optimization constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). Though PDE-constrained optimization is itself challenging, most applications pose additional…

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods…

There is significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware neural networks (NNs), based on learning…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in safety-critical applications such as medical image segmentation. Total uncertainty is typically decomposed into data-related aleatoric uncertainty (AU) and model-related epistemic uncertainty…

Countless research works of deep neural networks (DNNs) in the task of credit card fraud detection have focused on improving the accuracy of point predictions and mitigating unwanted biases by building different network architectures or…

Graphical models have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous applications. However, their performance, confidence, and trustworthiness are often limited by the inherent randomness in data generation and the lack of…

In this work we aim to obtain computationally-efficient uncertainty estimates with deep networks. For this, we propose a modified knowledge distillation procedure that achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimates both for in and…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account…

Reinforcement learning (RL) can be used to create a decision-making agent for autonomous driving. However, previous approaches provide only black-box solutions, which do not offer information on how confident the agent is about its…

This work demonstrates the ability to produce readily interpretable statistical metrics for model fit, fixed effects covariance coefficients, and prediction confidence. Importantly, this work compares 4 suitable and commonly applied…