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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Ayush Khot , Xihaier Luo , Ai Kagawa , Shinjae Yoo

This paper questions the effectiveness of a modern predictive uncertainty quantification approach, called \emph{evidential deep learning} (EDL), in which a single neural network model is trained to learn a meta distribution over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Maohao Shen , J. Jon Ryu , Soumya Ghosh , Yuheng Bu , Prasanna Sattigeri , Subhro Das , Gregory W. Wornell

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for assessing the reliability of machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, identifying extrapolation regimes and enabling uncertainty-aware workflows…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Zhongyao Wang , Taoyong Cui , Jiawen Zou , Shufei Zhang , Bo Yan , Wanli Ouyang , Weimin Tan , Mao Su

Current methods commonly used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning (DL) models utilize Bayesian methods which are computationally expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we provide a detailed study of UQ based on…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2025-01-13 Ayush Khot , Xiwei Wang , Avik Roy , Volodymyr Kindratenko , Mark S. Neubauer

Evidential deep learning (EDL) has shown remarkable success in uncertainty estimation. However, there is still room for improvement, particularly in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and classification tasks. The limited OOD detection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

Reliability of deep learning models is critical for deployment in high-stakes applications, where out-of-distribution or adversarial inputs may lead to detrimental outcomes. Evidential Deep Learning, an efficient paradigm for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Charmaine Barker , Daniel Bethell , Simos Gerasimou

This work reveals an evidential signal that emerges from the uncertainty value in Evidential Deep Learning (EDL). EDL is one example of a class of uncertainty-aware deep learning approaches designed to provide confidence (or epistemic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Cai Davies , Marc Roig Vilamala , Alun D. Preece , Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Supriyo Chakraborty

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks. Despite its popularity, its theoretical foundations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-03 Pietro Carlotti , Nevena Gligić , Arya Farahi

Reliable uncertainty estimation has become a crucial requirement for the industrial deployment of deep learning algorithms, particularly in high-risk applications such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis. However, mainstream…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Junyu Gao , Mengyuan Chen , Liangyu Xiang , Changsheng Xu

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Danruo Deng , Guangyong Chen , Yang Yu , Furui Liu , Pheng-Ann Heng

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) has emerged as an efficient, sampling-free strategy for uncertainty estimation. A series of EDL variants have been proposed to address specific limitations of the original framework, achieving notable success.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Yuanye Liu , Yibo Gao , Yuanyang Chen , Xiahai Zhuang

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an emerging method for uncertainty estimation that provides reliable predictive uncertainty in a single forward pass, attracting significant attention. Grounded in subjective logic, EDL derives Dirichlet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Mengyuan Chen , Junyu Gao , Changsheng Xu

Federated learning (FL), aimed at leveraging vast distributed datasets, confronts a crucial challenge: the heterogeneity of data across different silos. While previous studies have explored discrete representations to enhance model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Tianyi Zhang , Yu Cao , Dianbo Liu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods that can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Olga Graf , Pablo Flores , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Real-world sensor-based learning systems require uncertainty estimation that is both reliable and computationally efficient. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) provides single-pass uncertainty estimation by modeling the class probabilities via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Berk Hayta , Hannah Laus , Simon Mittermaier , Felix Krahmer

Deep Learning (DL) methods have been transforming computer vision with innovative adaptations to other domains including climate change. For DL to pervade Science and Engineering (S&E) applications where risk management is a core component,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-25 Thomas Vandal , Evan Kodra , Jennifer Dy , Sangram Ganguly , Ramakrishna Nemani , Auroop R. Ganguly

Despite recent advances in the accuracy of brain tumor segmentation, the results still suffer from low reliability and robustness. Uncertainty estimation is an efficient solution to this problem, as it provides a measure of confidence in…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-15 Hao Li , Yang Nan , Javier Del Ser , Guang Yang

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems are using deep learning models to improve decision-making. However, deep classifiers can be overly confident in their incorrect predictions, a major issue especially in safety-critical domains. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-05 Murat Sensoy , Lance M. Kaplan , Simon Julier , Maryam Saleki , Federico Cerutti

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific and engineering domains. However, DNNs can make unexpected, incorrect, yet overconfident predictions, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang , Tingsong Xiao , Zelin Xu , Yukun Li

Neural network classifiers trained with cross-entropy loss achieve strong predictive accuracy but lack the capability to provide inherent predictive uncertainty estimates, thus requiring external techniques to obtain these estimates. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Courtney Franzen , Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki
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