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Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-27 Benjamin Letham , Brian Karrer , Guilherme Ottoni , Eytan Bakshy

We study mechanism design for public-good provision under a noisy privacy-preserving transformation of individual agents' reported preferences. The setting is a standard binary model with transfers and quasi-linear utility. Agents report…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-05-21 Farzad Pourbabaee , Federico Echenique

Academic research in recommender systems has been greatly focusing on the accuracy-related measures of recommendations. Even when non-accuracy measures such as popularity bias, diversity, and novelty are studied, it is often solely from the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Himan Abdollahpouri , Masoud Mansoury

I study altruistic choices through the lens of a cognitively noisy decision-maker. I introduce a theoretical framework that demonstrates how increased cognitive noise can directionally affect altruistic decisions and put its implications to…

General Economics · Economics 2025-01-03 Niklas M. Witzig

Detecting and mitigating bias in speaker verification systems is important, as datasets, processing choices and algorithms can lead to performance differences that systematically favour some groups of people while disadvantaging others.…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-27 Wiebke Hutiri , Tanvina Patel , Aaron Yi Ding , Odette Scharenborg

A principal decides whether to approve an agent based on a noisy signal (e.g., test scores) generated by the agent. High-quality agents can produce high signals on average at lower cost, but the realizations are subject to noise that…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-14 Shuhua Si , Yangfan Zhou

We consider the problem of aggregating predictions or measurements from a set of human forecasters, models, sensors or other instruments which may be subject to bias or miscalibration and random heteroscedastic noise. We propose a Bayesian…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-12 Chirag Nagpal , Robert E. Tillman , Prashant Reddy , Manuela Veloso

Recommender systems are personalized: we expect the results given to a particular user to reflect that user's preferences. Some researchers have studied the notion of calibration, how well recommendations match users' stated preferences,…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Kun Lin , Nasim Sonboli , Bamshad Mobasher , Robin Burke

We propose a scalable Bayesian preference learning method for jointly predicting the preferences of individuals as well as the consensus of a crowd from pairwise labels. Peoples' opinions often differ greatly, making it difficult to predict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-13 Edwin Simpson , Iryna Gurevych

We show on theoretical grounds that, even in the presence of noise, probabilistic measurement strategies (which have a certain probability of failure or abstention) can provide, upon a heralded successful outcome, estimates with a precision…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-10-27 J. Calsamiglia , B. Gendra , R. Munoz-Tapia , E. Bagan

Pairwise comparisons are widely used in decision analysis, preference modeling, and evaluation problems. In many practical situations, the observed comparison matrix is not reciprocal. This lack of reciprocity is often treated as a defect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Jean-Pierre Magnot

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Fani Tsapeli , Peter Tino , Mirco Musolesi

Preference elicitation explicitly asks users what kind of recommendations they would like to receive. It is a popular technique for conversational recommender systems to deal with cold-starts. Previous work has studied selection bias in…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Shashank Gupta , Harrie Oosterhuis , Maarten de Rijke

The ability to uncover preferences from choices is fundamental for both positive economics and welfare analysis. Overwhelming evidence shows that choice is stochastic, which has given rise to random utility models as the dominant paradigm…

General Economics · Economics 2018-11-07 Carlos Alos-Ferrer , Ernst Fehr , Nick Netzer

This paper studies the problem of finding the exact ranking from noisy comparisons. A comparison over a set of $m$ items produces a noisy outcome about the most preferred item, and reveals some information about the ranking. By repeatedly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-30 Wenbo Ren , Jia Liu , Ness B. Shroff

Unobserved confounding arises when an unmeasured feature influences both the treatment and the outcome, leading to biased causal effect estimates. This issue undermines observational studies in fields like economics, medicine, ecology or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Alexander Merkov , David Rohde , Alexandre Gilotte , Benjamin Heymann

We address the fundamental problem of selection under uncertainty by modeling it from the perspective of Bayesian persuasion. In our model, a decision maker with imperfect information always selects the option with the highest expected…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Siddhartha Banerjee , Kamesh Munagala , Yiheng Shen , Kangning Wang

Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-04-30 B. Joachimi , F. Köhlinger , W. Handley , P. Lemos

Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-09 Amnon Balanov , Tamir Bendory , Wasim Huleihel

Decades of research suggest that information exchange in groups and organizations can reliably improve judgment accuracy in tasks such as financial forecasting, market research, and medical decision-making. However, we show that improving…

General Economics · Economics 2021-04-26 Joshua Becker , Douglas Guilbeault , Ned Smith
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