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Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on causal effects defined as contrasts between the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions on the nodes of a graphical model. In this article we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Iván Díaz

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Wasim Ahmad , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

While recurrent event analyses have been extensively studied, limited attention has been given to causal inference within the framework of recurrent event analysis. We develop a multiply robust estimation framework for causal inference in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Benjamin R. Baer , Trang Bui , Daniel Mork , Robert L. Strawderman , Ashkan Ertefaie

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…

The creation of the ICH E9 (R1) estimands framework has led to more precise specification of the treatment effects of interest in the design and statistical analysis of clinical trials. However, it is unclear how the new framework relates…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-20 Thomas Drury , Jonathan W. Bartlett , David Wright , Oliver N. Keene

Causal effect estimation from observational data is one of the essential problems in causal inference. However, most estimation methods rely on the strong assumption that all confounders are observed, which is impractical and untestable in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Yubai Yuan , Annie Qu

Data-driven societal event forecasting methods exploit relevant historical information to predict future events. These methods rely on historical labeled data and cannot accurately predict events when data are limited or of poor quality.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Songgaojun Deng , Huzefa Rangwala , Yue Ning

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in causal reasoning for designing fair decision-making systems due to its compatibility with legal frameworks, interpretability for human stakeholders, and robustness to spurious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Aida Rahmattalabi , Alice Xiang

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Duncan A. Clark , Mark S. Handcock

Latent variable models provide a powerful framework for incorporating and inferring unobserved factors in observational data. In causal inference, they help account for hidden factors influencing treatment or outcome, thereby addressing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Tetsuro Morimura , Tatsushi Oka , Yugo Suzuki , Daisuke Moriwaki

We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Sohom Bhattacharya , Subhabrata Sen

Interference occurs when the potential outcomes of a unit depend on the treatment of others. Interference can be highly heterogeneous, where treating certain individuals might have a larger effect on the population's overall outcome. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Samantha G Dean , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Laura Forastiere

The estimand framework proposed by ICH in 2017 has brought fundamental changes in the pharmaceutical industry. It clearly describes how a treatment effect in a clinical question should be precisely defined and estimated, through attributes…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-12-09 Jinghong Zeng

We propose a new nonparametric modeling framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-25 Eric Auerbach , Hongchang Guo , Max Tabord-Meehan

Causal mediation analysis with random interventions has become an area of significant interest for understanding time-varying effects with longitudinal and survival outcomes. To tackle causal and statistical challenges due to the complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-12 Zeyi Wang , Lars van der Laan , Maya Petersen , Thomas Gerds , Kajsa Kvist , Mark van der Laan

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler