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Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for achieving probabilistic guarantees on black-box models. CP is generally applied to a model post-training. Recent research efforts, on the other hand, have focused on optimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Sima Noorani , Orlando Romero , Nicolo Dal Fabbro , Hamed Hassani , George J. Pappas

Deep Learning predictions with measurable confidence are increasingly desirable for real-world problems, especially in high-risk settings. The Conformal Prediction (CP) framework is a versatile solution that guarantees a maximum error rate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Julia A. Meister , Khuong An Nguyen , Stelios Kapetanakis , Zhiyuan Luo

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage. However, recent studies have shown that integrating confidence calibration with CP can lead to a degradation in efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Rui Luo , Nicolo Colombo

We propose \textbf{Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP)}, a distribution-free framework for constructing well-calibrated prediction intervals in nonstationary time series. TCP couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-26 Agnideep Aich , Ashit Baran Aich , Dipak C. Jain

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-12-22 Jack Y. Araz , Michael Spannowsky

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

The safe integration of machine learning modules in decision-making processes hinges on their ability to quantify uncertainty. A popular technique to achieve this goal is conformal prediction (CP), which transforms an arbitrary base…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Matteo Zecchin , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Fredrik Hellström

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Junxian Liu , Hao Zeng , Hongxin Wei

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Zhiyu Zhang , Zhou Lu , Heng Yang

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

We introduce Conformal Bandits, a novel framework integrating Conformal Prediction (CP) into bandit problems, a classic paradigm for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Traditional regret-minimisation bandit strategies like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-11 Simone Cuonzo , Nina Deliu