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Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…

In grokking, a model first fits the training data while test accuracy remains low, and only later begins to generalize. We ask whether this transition can be localized from observed training trajectories before the test accuracy rises, and…

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder with no known cure that affects tens of millions of people worldwide. Early detection of AD is critical for timely intervention to halt or slow the progression of the disease. In this…

Trajectory prediction for flying objects is critical in domains ranging from sports analytics to aerospace. However, traditional methods struggle with complex physical modeling, computational inefficiencies, and high hardware demands, often…

The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…

There has been a recent surge of interest in time series modeling using the Transformer architecture. However, forecasting multivariate time series with Transformer presents a unique challenge as it requires modeling both temporal…

Animals often exhibit changes in their behavior during migration. Telemetry data provide a way to observe geographic position of animals over time, but not necessarily changes in the dynamics of the movement process. Continuous-time models…

Zoonotic disease transmission between animals and humans is a growing risk and the agricultural context acts as a likely point of transition, with individual heterogeneity acting as an important contributor. Thus, understanding the dynamics…

Accurate trajectory prediction can improve General Aviation safety in non-towered terminal airspace, where high traffic density increases accident risk. We present ASCENT, a lightweight transformer-based model for multi-modal 3D aircraft…

Origin-Destination (OD) matrices record directional flow data between pairs of OD regions. The intricate spatiotemporal dependency in the matrices makes the OD matrix forecasting (ODMF) problem not only intractable but also non-trivial.…

The spread of PM2.5 pollutants that endanger health is difficult to predict because it involves many atmospheric variables. These micron particles can spread rapidly from their source to residential areas, increasing the risk of respiratory…

Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful…

While the overarching pattern of biannual avian migration is well understood, there are significant questions pertaining to this phenomenon that invite further study. Necessary to any analysis of these questions is an understanding of how a…

Accurate tourism demand forecasting is hindered by limited historical data and complex spatiotemporal dependencies among tourist origins. A novel forecasting framework integrating virtual sample generation and a novel Transformer predictor…

Identifying areas in a landscape where individuals have a higher likelihood of disease infection is key to managing diseases. Unlike conventional methods relying on ecological assumptions, we perform a novel epidemiological tomography for…

The expansion of the low-altitude economy is contingent on reliable cellular connectivity for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). A key challenge in pre-flight planning is predicting communication link quality along proposed and pre-defined…

Increasing climate change and habitat loss are driving unprecedented shifts in species distributions. Conservation professionals urgently need timely, high-resolution predictions of biodiversity risks, especially in ecologically diverse…

Patient healthcare utilization consists of irregularly time-stamped events, such as outpatient visits, inpatient admissions, and emergency encounters, forming individualized care trajectories. Modeling these trajectories is crucial for…

Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…

With the exponential growth in the world population and the constant increase in human mobility, the danger of outbreaks of epidemics is rising. Especially in high density urban areas such as public transport and transfer points, where…