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To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) have opened up greater opportunities to enable fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) to behave as more powerful interactive agents through improved instruction-following ability.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Jerry Huang , Peng Lu , Qiuhao Zeng

Large language models demonstrate strong performance on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, yet remain surprisingly fragile to meaning-preserving surface perturbations. We systematically evaluate three open-weight LLMs, Mistral-7B,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Shou-Tzu Han , Rodrigue Rizk , KC Santosh

Confidence calibration in LLMs, i.e., aligning their self-assessed confidence with the actual accuracy of their responses, enabling them to self-evaluate the correctness of their outputs. However, current calibration methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Yige Yuan , Bingbing Xu , Hexiang Tan , Fei Sun , Teng Xiao , Wei Li , Huawei Shen , Xueqi Cheng

Large language models (LLMs) can fluently generate student-like responses, making them attractive as simulated students for training and evaluating AI tutors and human educators. Yet such simulators are typically evaluated by output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Heejin Do , Shashank Sonkar , Mrinmaya Sachan

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that implicitly reduce to Boolean satisfiability (SAT), yet their reasoning ability on SAT remains unclear. We present a systematic study of LLMs on 2-SAT and 3-SAT, together with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Leizhen Zhang , Shuhan Chen , Sheng Chen

Large language models (LLMs) often present answers with high apparent confidence despite lacking an explicit mechanism for reasoning about certainty or truth. While existing benchmarks primarily evaluate single-turn accuracy, truthfulness…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Mohammadreza Saadat , Steve Nemzer

A critical component in the trustworthiness of LLMs is reliable uncertainty communication, yet LLMs often use assertive language when conveying false claims, leading to over-reliance and eroded trust. We present the first systematic study…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Gabrielle Kaili-May Liu , Gal Yona , Avi Caciularu , Idan Szpektor , Tim G. J. Rudner , Arman Cohan

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in various perception and reasoning tasks. Despite this success, ensuring their reliability in practical deployment necessitates robust confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Yunkai Dang , Yifan Jiang , Yizhu Jiang , Anqi Chen , Wenbin Li , Yang Gao

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as information sources, yet small changes in semantic framing can destabilize their truth judgments. We propose P-StaT (Perturbation Stability of Truth), an evaluation framework for testing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Samantha Dies , Courtney Maynard , Germans Savcisens , Tina Eliassi-Rad

Psychology research has shown that humans are poor at estimating their performance on tasks, tending towards underconfidence on easy tasks and overconfidence on difficult tasks. We examine three LLMs, Llama-3-70B-instruct, Claude-3-Sonnet,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Chenjun Xu , Bingbing Wen , Bin Han , Robert Wolfe , Lucy Lu Wang , Bill Howe

Learning systems are typically optimized by minimizing loss or maximizing reward, assuming that improvements in these signals reflect progress toward the true objective. However, when feedback reliability is unobservable, this assumption…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Zhipeng Zhang , Zhenjie Yao , Kai Li , Lei Yang

Why do language models trained on contradictory data prefer correct answers? In controlled experiments with small transformers (3.5M--86M parameters), we show that this preference tracks the compressibility structure of errors rather than…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Konstantin Krestnikov

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic and multi-turn workflows where they are tasked to perform actions of significant consequence. In order to deploy them reliably and manage risky outcomes in these settings, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Arka Pal , Teo Kitanovski , Arthur Liang , Akilesh Potti , Micah Goldblum

As large language models attract increasing attention and find widespread application, concurrent challenges of reliability also arise at the same time. Confidence calibration, an effective analysis method for gauging the reliability of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Chiwei Zhu , Benfeng Xu , Quan Wang , Yongdong Zhang , Zhendong Mao

Large language models are often not just wrong, but \emph{confidently wrong}: when they produce factually incorrect answers, they tend to verbalize overly high confidence rather than signal uncertainty. Such verbalized overconfidence can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Tianyi Zhao , Yinhan He , Wendy Zheng , Yujie Zhang , Chen Chen

Text-based automated Cognitive Distortion detection is a challenging task due to its subjective nature, with low agreement scores observed even among expert human annotators, leading to unreliable annotations. We explore the use of Large…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Neha Sharma , Navneet Agarwal , Kairit Sirts

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating fluent but incorrect content, known as confabulation, which poses increasing risks in multi-turn or agentic applications where outputs may be reused as context. In this work, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Tianyi Zhou , Johanne Medina , Sanjay Chawla

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Bo Kai , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Tom A. Lamb , Jialin Yu , Philip H. S. Torr , Chang Xu

Language models, characterized by their black-box nature, often hallucinate and display sensitivity to input perturbations, causing concerns about trust. To enhance trust, it is imperative to gain a comprehensive understanding of the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Vatsal Gupta , Pranshu Pandya , Tushar Kataria , Vivek Gupta , Dan Roth